The last attempt by the Israeli army to push into the Gaza Strip by land ended in retreat and heavy damage during the 2014 conflict. When the force reached the Shucaiyye neighborhood, Hamas executed an ambush that pinned down the advancing columns. Mortar fire and anti-tank missiles rained in, forcing the launch of airstrikes to clear routes and extract troops. In response, the military leadership chose a broad bombing campaign that left more than 2,200 Gazans dead, many civilians including hundreds of children.
Experts emphasize that the current situation is unfolding differently. War analyst Guillermo Pulido notes that there is no established doctrine for a major ground assault in this context. He explains that if land operations proceed, the instinct could be to hit high-density targets with artillery and heavy bombardment, then clear civilian corridors before any infantry moves in. Armored units designed for urban warfare, along with heavily protected vehicles, could encircle the battlefield while the ground operation unfolds.
The size comparison of Gaza to Madrid illustrates the scale of the challenge. Nearby, war photographers have documented the human impact and the geographic realities that shape tactical decisions.
Current actions show Israel ordering a complete siege around the narrow Gaza Strip. A 365-kilometer zone, housing about 2.2 million people, faces disruptions to water, electricity, communications, and essential supplies. The Defense Ministry has described this as a measure to pressure Hamas, with critics arguing it risks serious humanitarian consequences. The United Nations has voiced concerns under international humanitarian law about such sieges, while military officials argue that strategic aims require tough preliminary steps before any ground offensive to degrade leadership and militia structures.
Deployments at the border have intensified. Roughly 700,000 reservists have been mobilized, though only a portion has arrived in the field so far. These troops would join an active force of around 180,000, with some recalling past mobilizations from the era of larger conflicts. Historical comparisons suggest the scale of a potential mobilization could reach into the hundreds of thousands if a broader offensive is approved.
Military planners warn that Gaza could be altered permanently by any renewed campaign. At this point there is no explicit disclosure of a final plan, but discussions point toward a large-scale response that could play out across multiple fronts. Analysts describe a scenario in which imminent operations resemble a hardening of strategy aimed at ending Hamas rule and dismantling its military wing, while grappling with the political and humanitarian fallout that would accompany such a decision.
Analysts warn that the trajectory remains uncertain. Observers like Rob Geist Pinfold, a security and strategy scholar with dual British and Israeli citizenship, caution that a worst-case scenario would involve extensive violence with limited immediate prospects for civilian protection. His work notes past experiences in regional conflicts and cautions against assuming simple outcomes from any single action. He argues that past engagements in the region show how momentum can shift quickly once a conflict begins, and the day-after considerations have a decisive role in planning.
The issue of intelligence and targeting remains complex. Hamas operates a network of tunnels and a history of concealment that complicates any near-term landing on soil inside Gaza. Analysts suggest that adversaries will try to hide during the initial stages and endure until a decision is made to reduce or suspend the presence on the ground, seeking escape routes and safe havens.
Experts emphasize the need to reassess security policies in light of evolving circumstances. Commentary from security scholars highlights the broader implications for regional stability and the potential impact on neighboring states. These analyses stress that any change in strategy will be judged by how it protects civilians and mitigates long-term harm while addressing security goals in a highly volatile environment.
Questions remain about how hostage situations or captured individuals might influence operational choices. Some observers argue that the army has signaled a readiness to act decisively even in the face of uncertain locations of hostages, while others warn that moves without robust civilian protections would attract sharp criticism and provoke broader consequences within the country. Assessments also acknowledge that existing limitations aimed at safeguarding civilians could be challenged by the pressures of a rapid offensive.
Historical context provides a lens for understanding possible outcomes. Earlier operations in Gaza, including the 2004 disengagement and the 2006 incidents involving Hamas, are cited in discussions about strategic timing, risk, and the potential for unintended consequences. The 2014 war is frequently referenced as a turning point that underscored the difficulties of large-scale ground operations in densely populated terrain and the heavy human costs that can result. Civilians in Gaza have faced displacement on a massive scale in past campaigns, with hundreds of thousands seeking shelter and safety while the conflict raged.
The ongoing situation remains tightly focused on the question of civilian protection, military objectives, and the complex web of regional politics that shape every decision. The path forward is debated among analysts, officials, and observers who weigh both the strategic imperatives and the moral responsibilities involved in any potential escalation.
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