The Hamas attack on October 7 thrust Israel into a national moment of reckoning. In the wake of the bloodshed that day, which left 1,139 Israelis dead and dozens seized, the country’s already divided Jewish society set aside some of its quarrels, yet tensions remained. Now, nearly six months later, that fragile unity has frayed. The looming decision by the Israeli Supreme Court at month’s end on whether the ultra-Orthodox community should be conscripted like the rest of the population has the country on edge. For many, Israel seems on the brink of rupture.
A current assessment notes that integrating ultra-Orthodox Jews into the broader economy, institutions, and the military is becoming a defining question for the state. A Jerusalem-based professor of the Hebrew University describes this as a deep-seated existential issue. Since the October 7 events, there is a heightened sense of duty toward Israel, though it has not produced a universal push to join the army. So far, military uniforms have begun to appear in isolated ultra-Orthodox neighborhoods in the major cities, but only as voluntary commitments.
Demographic stakes
Seventy-five years ago, when the State of Israel was founded, the first prime minister, David Ben-Gurion, exempted men who studied Torah full-time in yeshivas from military service. At that time, they were just a few hundred young people dedicated to preserving Jewish traditions disrupted by the Holocaust. Today, the ultra-Orthodox community numbers about 1.3 million Jews in Israel.
Decades of exemptions have become less tenable. The community represents roughly 13 percent of the population, yet only a minority participates fully in Israeli society. Because observant men often focus on religious study, they receive a range of social benefits from the state without contributing as much to overall national life.
Historically, ultra-Orthodox leaders have often resisted broader state secularism, forging certain compromises with secular leaders to gain support. Recent focus has shifted toward economic integration, yet the Gaza war has highlighted more urgent needs that demand attention beyond economic inclusion.
More recruits
There has been a growing realization that Israel cannot rely on a small, highly technological army to defend itself. The October 7 assault underscored the need for a larger pool of conscripts. To avoid upsetting coalition partners who back ultra-Orthodox parties, Prime Minister Netanyahu has proposed raising the conscription age, expanding service length, and increasing the annual reserve duty. Still, many in the government and military leadership have pushed back on these plans.
A recent IDI survey shows broad support among Jewish Israelis for ending the exemption for yeshiva students, with 71 percent in favor among secular Jews, and 86 percent among seculars overall. Only 19 percent of ultra-Orthodox respondents share that view. Critics worry that the army could become a crucible for a new, more secular Jewish identity among conscripts, potentially eroding long-standing religious norms that some rabbinic authorities want to preserve.
The idea of changing how the ultra-Orthodox engage with military duty has sparked fears that young people might drift away from their communities or face pressures that threaten traditional life. One father of eight notes that the army’s presence can be a testing ground for values that don’t always align with older generations’ expectations.
“Possible government collapse”
By late March, the Supreme Court is expected to decide whether the government must compel the ultra-Orthodox to enlist. If Netanyahu again yields to coalition pressure, he may need to present a new law to accommodate exemptions. A political analyst stresses that the issue is so significant it could trigger elections and potentially cause a government collapse. The fate of Netanyahu’s administration and, in some ways, the cohesion of the Israeli state hang on this calculation.
Rabbis in the ultra-Orthodox sector are wary of sending more young people to the army, fearing that it would expose them to life beyond their community. They argue that preserving the community’s cohesion hinges on maintaining these youths’ distance from broader, modern life. A scholar notes that the moment calls for a mental shift within the community, a change that will take time even if the war with Gaza remains unresolved. Since October, combat has taken a toll on the army, with casualties mounting in Gaza, raising questions about how resources are distributed and who bears the risk in defense of the nation.
The conversation continues as leaders debate whether a step toward service is possible, and what that means for the future balance between tradition and national duty. The discussion is far from over, and it is shaping one of the most significant debates in Israeli society today.
— This summary reflects ongoing reporting and analysis from multiple observers within the Israeli political and academic communities.