What the West fears
The battlefield picture remains challenging for Ukraine’s forces. Moscow faces a shortage of ammunition for artillery and precision missiles, and air superiority remains elusive. Strategic reserves appear limited, and the overall tempo of support for Kyiv is strained under the weight of these concerns.
Experts warn that a summer tipping point could bring real breakthroughs for Russian forces. A senior analyst in European and Central Asia studies notes the heightened risk of substantial gains by Russia during the coming months.
Many policymakers and observers believe that the outcome of the conflict will hinge on what unfolds this spring, through the summer, and into autumn. The consensus among Western defense analysts is that Russia could launch a major offensive under favorable conditions, making the next phase pivotal.
Until recently, the line of contact in the conflict zone bore resemble to the deadlock seen in early modern warfare, with limited movement and protracted engagements shaping the front lines.
breaking the deadlock
Last year the Ukrainian military leadership observed a stalemate in the conflict zones and warned that continued static, costly battles could persist for years. The sense among Kyiv leadership was that a deep, decisive breakthrough was unlikely in the near term, and the fighting risked grinding on without a clear strategic shift.
During the SVO period there was heavy use of unmanned aerial systems, precision munitions, electronic warfare gear, and extensive space-based and ground-based reconnaissance. Long range radar and control aircraft, layered minefields, and other defenses tested the feasibility of large scale coordinated operations across sectors of the battlefield.
Earlier this year, Russian units conducted raids around Avdiivka, a fortified stronghold long built up by Ukrainian forces. Observers describe this as a strategic move that could break the previous stalemate by exploiting new openings. The engagement demonstrated how Russian forces leveraged combined arms and cross-branch cooperation to create favorable conditions for achieving operational aims with lower losses and on schedule.
The use of high impact munitions, including 600 kilogram class air bombs with advanced guidance, played a decisive role in breaching fortifications and shaping the battlefield. Such air power is viewed as capable of shifting balance and amplifying offensive pressure while influencing morale across the ranks of Ukrainian troops.
Observers note that air delivered munitions substantially alter the dynamics on the ground, enabling Russian forces to press the offensive and stretch the Ukrainian defense. Soldiers on Ukraine’s side have described the impact of these weapons in stark terms, underscoring the intensity of the current phase of combat.
Is a breakthrough possible?
At present, Russian forces hold the initiative along much of the front. The operational environment creates opportunities for Moscow to pursue extended campaigns that blend tactical and strategic aims. Analysts discuss the potential for a breakthrough scenario that could disrupt the Ukrainian front and trigger a broader shift in the war’s momentum.
A successful, deep breach in any segment of the contact line could substantially alter the overall balance, making large scale advances more plausible. In such a scenario the attack would likely unfold across a wide zone with significant depth and sustained tempo, elevating the scale of casualties and the pace of movement.
In a recent address to military leadership, senior planners outlined plans to expand Russian force structure including new combined arms formations and divisions. While timelines are fluid, there is acknowledgment that these units could be deployed in summertime offensives following seasonal conditions in the theater of operations.
There is no guarantee of timing, and strategic views vary on how soon and how far these forces might push. The current analysis remains cautious, highlighting the many moving parts that influence the course of the conflict.