Inditex sets sights on a strong fiscal year as September results loom
As September approaches, Inditex prepares to announce the second fiscal quarter results and the first six months of the year. The period runs from February 1 to July 31. In the same six months a year earlier, the group reported net profit of 1,794 million, up 41% from the previous year, while sales reached 14,845 million, rising 24.5%. Market observers anticipate that these figures could be surpassed in the first half of the current year, with double‑digit growth expected to extend into the second quarter. These trends suggest the company may end its fiscal year on a new revenue and profit high, echoing 2022 results when revenue reached 32,569 million and profit stood at 4,130 million.
The latest forecast period commentary comes from Jefferies, a U.S. investment firm. Jefferies has released its outlook for Inditex’s results due on September 13, projecting second‑quarter revenue of 8,994 million, up 11% from the prior year, and profit of 2,424 million, also up 11%. The firm notes that Inditex continues to gain market share both globally and in North America, aided by lower air freight costs, stronger full‑price sales, and a relatively weak U.S. dollar compared with the rest of the industry. The report highlights Inditex’s ability to preserve a flexible gross margin even in a favorable demand environment.
If Jefferies’ projections hold, Inditex would close its first fiscal period with about 12% higher turnover at 16,605 million and roughly 35% higher profit at 2,424 million. Analysts at Jefferies point to the company’s unique supply chain as a key advantage, enabling faster fashion replenishment and quicker responses than competitors, with discounts during COVID‑19 easing compared to peers. They also see opportunities for further market share gains and note the strong cash position of around 11.6 billion in 2024 could support another robust dividend cycle.
During the second half of the previous year, a peak sales window around the Christmas season produced revenues of 17,724 million and profits of 2,336 million. If similar performance recurs in the latter half of the current year, and combined with the first‑half forecast, annual revenue could exceed 34,000 million, with profits surpassing 4,700 million. This would mark a record period, extending the ascent beyond the prior year and underscoring sustained growth momentum.
Analysts have also adjusted expectations for the stock price. Jefferies increased its target on Inditex to 40 euros from 38 euros, signaling a potential rise of around 17% from the prior close. The brokerage notes continued strength in consumer discretionary demand within the fashion sector and recommends purchasing the shares. If 40 euros is reached, Inditex’s market capitalization would rise beyond 124 billion euros, reflecting the growing valuation of the Galician retailer.
So far this year, Inditex shares have climbed roughly 39%, and the company’s market capitalization is nearing 106,000 million euros. It remains the sole Ibex company with a market value exceeding 100,000 million, with its all‑time intraday high touched on June 30 at 35.46 euros.
Jefferies’ model also suggests a familiar pattern in the run‑up to earnings: a pre‑announcement rally, followed by a strong gain after results are unveiled and a period of profit realization as investors reassess. Morgan Stanley has likewise raised its target price, lifting expectations to 37 euros from 34, and Citi has adjusted its target to 38 euros while reiterating a buy rating. Citi also notes that Inditex remains the top choice among on‑demand retail players in Europe due to its solid sales momentum and a leading competitive position.
Taken together, the consensus among analysts remains positive. The average price target from stock‑coverage firms is about 36.26 euros, with a buy consensus and a premium of roughly 6.5% above the current price. The prevailing view is that Inditex continues to execute well in a volatile retail environment, supported by a robust balance sheet and a resilient brand portfolio.