Impact of Kakhovka Dam Demolition on Water Supply, Evacuations, and Regional Security

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More than seven people were reported missing in Novaya Kakhovka following an uncontrolled discharge of water from the Kakhovka reservoir and the demolition of hydroelectric structures. On Wednesday, June 7, Vladimir Leontiev, head of the city administration, provided the update to TASS.

The water level in Nova Kakhovka rose sharply, reaching 12 meters and then dropping below the hydroelectric plant to about 11 meters. Leontiev stated that the Dnieper should return to normal levels within 72 hours, and he suggested that the worst outcomes tied to the demolition had passed. The left-bank village Korsunka was completely submerged, and sections of the Dnieper, including Krynki and Cossack Camps, were flooded up to the roofs .

Destruction of the hydroelectric facility is expected to complicate water supply to Crimea, according to the city officials . A state of emergency was declared in the Kherson region, where about 2,700 houses were flooded. Residents living along the Dnieper were being evacuated as the situation unfolded.

Currently, fourteen settlements lie within the flood zone, with the potential to flood roughly 80 more. In Genichesk and Skadovsk, temporary shelters were established for evacuees from the Kherson region flood zones. Approximately 40 towns and villages in the Ukrainian-controlled area experienced flooding .

According to Tatyana Kuzmich, deputy governor of Kherson, more than 1,200 residents from coastal settlements were evacuated. Some residents were rescued from rooftops while others remained behind, highlighting the ongoing danger. The Ministry of Emergencies reported 1,274 evacuees, including 32 people with reduced mobility, and 350 people remained in temporary shelter centers as the situation evolved every half hour .

Demolition at Kakhovskaya HPP

On the night of Tuesday, June 6, gate valves at the Kakhovskaya HPP were destroyed, allowing reservoir water to drain uncontrollably. The plant itself was flooded. From the 28 openings, 14 collapsed, and the collapse continued as water flowed down the Dnieper. Some Nova Kakhovka residents needed urgent assistance and were hospitalized in the aftermath .

Three operating groups of rescuers from the Russian Ministry of Emergencies were dispatched to Nova Kakhovka, Holaya Pristan, and Alyoshka. Farmlands along the Dnieper were flooded as a result .

Investigators are evaluating all clues surrounding the dam collapse, noting that the assessment is complicated by the structural failure. Earlier, the Investigative Committee of the Russian Federation opened a criminal case related to the dam’s destruction and subsequent regional flooding .

Additional consequences of the emergency

Kiev’s mayor, Vitali Klitschko, said the dam’s demolition would not disrupt the water supply to the Ukrainian capital. In contrast, Evgeny Balitsky, deputy governor of the Zaporizhia region, reported a 2.5-meter drop in the Dnieper near the Zaporizhzhya NPP, with expectations of a further decline up to 7 meters .
IAEA experts are monitoring the Kakhovskaya HPP situation and say there is no direct risk to the nuclear safety of the Zaporozhye NPP. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi noted a lowering of the water level in the reservoir used to cool the ZNPP, while Renat Karchaa, adviser to the Rosenergoatom managing director, stated that nuclear plant risks remained minimal .

Reports from Zaporozhye and Berdyansk indicate growing water scarcity and disruptions to water supply systems in Krivoy Rog. The United Nations has expressed concern about the consequences of destroying the hydroelectric facility for Crimea. President Sergei Aksenov reported no imminent flooding threat to the peninsula but warned of potential shallowing of the North Crimean Canal, while Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Crimea’s water supply is improving without the canal .

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky convened the National Security and Defense Council and ordered evacuations for residents on the right bank of the Kherson region on the prior day. Ukraine’s Ministry of Agricultural Policy warned that the dam’s destruction could convert southern agricultural fields into desert by 2024. A military analyst from the LPR, Colonel Vitaly Kiselev, argued that the breakthrough and uncontrolled discharge would not critically affect the line of Russian defense in Kherson, though some fortifications may need repositioning .

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