Across Europe, a complete and lasting halt to gas deliveries from Russia would ripple through economies with varying intensity. In central and eastern Europe, where dependence on Russian gas remains higher, the disruption could create uneven effects among member states. Estimates point to a potential drag on GDP that, for some economies, could reach up to six percentage points. Spain, by comparison, might see a GDP impact around one percentage point under the same pressure, according to IMF projections. (IMF)
During a prolonged gas shortage instigated by Russia, the most exposed countries in Central and Eastern Europe face the risk of outright gas scarcities and associated GDP losses that could amount to as much as 6 percent, the IMF notes. Nations such as Hungary, Slovakia, and the Czech Republic are frequently singled out in this context as particularly vulnerable. (IMF)
Similarly, the IMF report highlights that economies like Austria, Germany, and Italy would feel a substantial squeeze as well. The predicted hit to their GDP could approach three percent, though the exact magnitude would hinge on policy responses and the timing of bottlenecks and frictions within the energy market. Market adaptation would also shape outcomes, underscoring the role of government measures and market resilience. (IMF)
For countries such as Spain, France, or Portugal, the negative consequences of interrupting Russian gas supplies would be more modest. The IMF estimates a pressure of roughly one percentage point on GDP, reflecting differences in energy mix, storage capacity, and access to diverse energy sources. (IMF)
Looking at the broader European landscape, the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Portugal, Sweden, and Denmark are characterized as having the capacity to adjust to a gas supply disruption with relatively limited reliance on Russian gas. The analysis suggests that shifts in gas inventory, whether increases or decreases, would exert only a small ripple effect on the wider European economy, a consequence of comparatively smaller storage roles and alternative supply arrangements. (IMF)
Authors emphasize that the predicted outcomes could be softened through several strategies: securing alternative energy sources and supplies, addressing infrastructure bottlenecks, promoting energy efficiency to reduce demand, protecting vulnerable households, and expanding solidarity agreements for gas sharing between countries. These policy levers can help stabilize supply, lower costs for consumers, and maintain economic momentum even in the face of a substantial external shock. (IMF)