Experts from Iceland’s meteorological agency warn that the Reykjanes peninsula could see a second volcanic event near Grindavík, following the eruption that began on December 18. The latest forecast notes ongoing ground swelling at Svartsengi, with land levels now matching those recorded just before the previous eruption. Analysts compare this pattern with similar signs observed during recent Reykjanes activity and even recall the Krafla events in nearby regions. There remains uncertainty about how much magma pressure must build before surface movement begins.
There are not that many earthquakes
The current phase shows less seismic activity than prior episodes. Experts explain that the prior explosion released significant strain in the area, so more magma must accumulate before earthquakes intensify. In the weeks before the last eruption, several quakes exceeded magnitude 3 and at least one surpassed magnitude 4, indicating the typical link between magma intrusion and stronger tremors.
Meteorologists suggest the next eruption could occur in the coming months, noting that as magma continues to accumulate beneath Svartsengi, the likelihood of a fresh magma intrusion and explosion rises day by day. The focus areas include Sundhnúkur, Stóra-Skógfell and Hagafell. It is important to remember that magma seepage does not always trigger an eruption, a pattern seen during activity at Fagradalsfjall and during the Krafla period.
The Icelandic Meteorological Office has published an updated hazard map reflecting the current interpretation of data at today’s situational briefing. During the assessment, the list of potential hazards in the Grindavík area was revised to include possible lava flows and gas emissions. The changes reflect the higher probability of an eruption north of Grindavík. The map will be updated again in early January as new observations come in.
In the meantime, IMO continues to monitor the region closely, and any significant developments will be communicated directly to civil protection through standard channels.