IBEX FINALLY TOUCHES THE 10,000-POINT MARK
The Ibex 35 hovered around the 10,000 level for several sessions, signaling a potential V-shaped recovery close to pre-pandemic highs. On February 17, 2020, it briefly touched 10,022.2 points. The index last topped 10,271.4 on May 11, 2018, and while it remains far from the all‑time peak of 15,945 reached on November 8, 2007, the path back is clear: another climb of roughly 59.5% would be required to reclaim that peak.
November has brought a notable gain of about 10.5 percent, marking the strongest monthly rise since November 2020, when the market jumped 25.2 percent after Pfizer announced high efficacy of its covid‑19 vaccine. The current momentum mirrors the trend seen over the past ten months, with traders pricing in resilience for a sustained rally this month.
Ten thousand points is more than a rounding milestone; it carries psychological weight for the Ibex 35. Other global indices have already completed similar “V-turns,” including the Euro Stoxx 50, the DAX, and the CAC 40, while major Wall Street gauges such as the S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones have also recovered to notable levels. The move is underpinned by contributions from large banks, construction companies, Inditex and Indra, with the Ibex 35 up about 21 percent for the year so far. Notable performers include BBVA, up about 60.6 percent in 2023, Laboratorios Rovi around 57.3 percent, Inditex about 55.4 percent, Banco Sabadell near 50.6 percent, ACS around 44.65 percent and Banco Santander roughly 40.4 percent. Inditex, the leading company in terms of market value on the Madrid Stock Exchange, sits near all‑time highs, as does Ferrovial.
Analysts view this return to pre‑pandemic levels as a signal that global stock markets may begin to outperform the American S&P 500 for the first time since mid‑2004. The next theoretical target on the chart sits around 10,115 points; if the uptrend strengthens, some forecasts point toward as high as 11,250 points, according to Sergio Ávila, a market analyst quoted by IG (IG broker analyst quotation).
“The Ibex 35 has climbed from October lows with four straight weeks of gains and is now approaching the 10,000 level, rising more than 12 percent,” notes Luis Francisco Ruiz of CMC Markets. “Beyond 10,000, the immediate benchmark is the pre‑pandemic high of 10,115 points. The chart shows a positive structural shift after years of decline starting around 2008, though the recent violent ascent calls for caution as the economy evolves, debt levels are reviewed, and the health of the real estate sector is monitored,” comments Pablo Gil, former director of technical analysis at Banco Santander.
IBEX REACHES THE 10,000 POINT MARK
The Ibex 35 has shifted from years of bearish pressure since the 2007 highs. In the past, some companies used share‑based dividends and capital actions that diluted holders and increased leverage; today the focus is on buybacks and treasury share reductions. Reto Magnum Sicav at Quadriga Asset Managers highlights how boards are prioritizing shareholder value with fewer shares outstanding, a sign of renewed confidence in the equity base (portfolio manager statement).
Another factor cited by investors is the currency dynamic in Latin America, especially a stronger peso and real in Brazil relative to the Mexican peso. These shifts come as Mexico and Brazil experience a favorable current account balance and inflation remains contained, allowing monetary authorities to lower interest rates without triggering excessive price pressure, according to José Lizán, a portfolio manager.
Moderation in inflation in the United States around 3.2 percent and in the euro zone near 2.9 percent has encouraged expectations that central banks may slow the pace of rate hikes. Some observers even anticipate possible rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank in the second half of 2024, a move that could support higher equity valuations, notes Víctor Alvargonzález, founder of Nextep Finance.
ALL-TIME HIGHS WITH DIVIDENDS
Dividend distributions keep Ibex 35 at historically high levels, with the index showing strong payout potential. Inditex and Ferrovial have reached record territory, while ACS sits close to similar highs, according to Apta Negocios analyst Roberto Moro. Dividends have long attracted investor interest in Spain, offering a yield mix that blends cash returns with buyback programs. The combined effect of dividends and buybacks adds a yield of about 6.3 percent per year, a figure that sits just above ten‑year Spanish bond yields around 3.6 percent.
The top dividend yield among Ibex 35 constituents belongs to Enagás at about 10.5 percent, followed by Caixabank, Banco Sabadell, Unicaja, BBVA and Mapfre with yields in the 8.3–10 percent range.
Wall Street Also Eyes Higher Levels
Are further gains likely? Wall Street indexes sit roughly 3.5 percent off their peaks, while the German DAX and the French CAC 40 show smaller gaps of around 3–4 percent. The trend of continued increases seems to be the norm after the recent surge, argues Moro. “We last saw the 10,000 level in February 2020, just before the pandemic,” he notes, adding that revisiting those levels would require an upshot in profits and more robust economic data. Still, positive earnings prospects and a resilient macro backdrop support the uptrend, though political and economic uncertainties in Europe remain a counterbalance, according to Ruiz.