Ibex 35 set for a cautious Monday as markets weigh inflation and growth signals

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In the upcoming session, the Ibex 35 is expected to edge higher by roughly 0.79%, continuing a week that traders anticipate will be defined by persistent inflation pressures, potential rate adjustments, and a general slowdown in economic activity. Investors will be watching how the index responds to a blend of domestic cues and global macro trends, with gains likely to hinge on a combination of company earnings, sector rotation, and broader risk sentiment.

Among the most noteworthy macroeconomic releases, market participants will scrutinize the third quarter gross domestic product report from China, the latest reading on German business confidence, and the ZEW index capturing inflation expectations within the euro area. Each data point has the potential to tilt risk appetite, influence currency moves, and shape expectations for policy paths in major economies.

On the corporate front, earnings season in the United States is gaining momentum, with several high-profile names delivering results over the coming days. Investors will evaluate performances from Bank of America, The Charles Schwab, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Tesla, Verizon, and American Express. In Spain, Bankinter, CIE Automotive, Viscofan, and Vidrala are among the companies slated to report, providing fresh signals about domestic demand, margins, and the resilience of local markets in a volatile global backdrop.

Following last week’s 0.7% advance, the Madrid stock market opened above the same milestone as trading began. The psychological level around 7,400 points remains in focus, with early leaders including IAG, up around 2.7%, Sabadell near 2.56%, Repsol up about 2.26%, Caixabank roughly 1.89%, Meliá Hotels climbing 1.72%, Iberdrola around 1.71%, Grifols near 1.44%, and Cellnex Telecom advancing about 1.33%. This breadth of participation underscores a mood of cautious optimism as investors digest earnings prospects and the potential for sectoral leadership shifts in a slower-growth climate.

The broader European equity landscape also showed strength at the open, with major bourses such as Frankfurt, Paris, and London trading higher in the session, marking gains around 0.3% across the region. This move reflects inklings of stabilization in investor sentiment after a period of heightened volatility driven by inflation data and policy expectations across the continent.

Meanwhile, commodity markets painted a similar picture of modest gains. The price of Brent crude, a principal benchmark for the European energy market, inched up about 1% and hovered near $92 per barrel. In the United States, WTI crude also posted a roughly 1% gain, trading around $85 per barrel as traders evaluated supply dynamics, global demand trends, and strategic reserve releases. Such movements in oil prices bear implications for inflation trajectories, energy equities, and broader macroeconomic forecasts.

In currency markets, the euro traded around $1.04 against the U.S. dollar, while the Spanish risk premium remained a key gauge for sovereign borrowing costs. The yield on the ten-year Spanish government bond was approximately 3.43%, reflecting market perceptions of fiscal risk and the trajectory of euro area monetary policy. Investors will be watching how these indicators evolve in response to mixed signals from central banks and evolving inflation data, which continue to color asset allocation and risk tolerance across both sides of the Atlantic. (Source: market summaries and official data agencies; attribution available in investment roundups and economic calendars.)

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