On 28 November 2023 the stock market rose with banks lending support, climbing 0.68% to 10,003.40 points. This pushed past the tough 10,000 level, marking a new high for the Ibex in three years and signaling a strong moment for the index. The broader market showed a 21.56% year‑over‑year gain for the Ibex. Banks led the gains, with Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria, Bankinter, Santander, Unicaja, Sabadell, and CaixaBank among the notable movers. Grifols faced a 1.75% decline, a reminder that even strong performers can pull back. Eight stocks finished lower, while BBVA was the standout in terms of gains.
Ibex 35 surpasses 10,000 points for the first time since February 2020
The impact of the war on Gaza according to Freedom24
The stock market has navigated a period influenced by a mix of rising rates, slowing growth, and the intrinsic strengths of individual companies at this pivotal moment. One recurring concern has been how investors interpret investments amid geopolitical tensions. The war in Gaza has added layers of uncertainty. Freedom24, a Europe‑based stock operator listed on the Nasdaq, examined the Israel‑Hamas conflict and its potential effects on markets. Their analysis, comparing it with prior conflicts, suggests the direct impact on the EU economy and equity markets is likely limited.
Beyond emotional responses such as consumer boycotts, the practical reality is that Israel accounted for about 0.8% of the EU’s total goods trade last year, making its direct influence modest. The role of Iran remains a focal point for potential spillovers if involvement escalates, a scenario that could threaten oil supply lines through chokepoints like the Strait of Hormuz. Yet Freedom24 also notes that material supply constraints are unlikely in the near term. They propose diversified portfolios as a way to weather volatility, highlighting allocations such as a 7%–10% position in gold as a hedge, with a 25%–35% tilt toward shorter‑term bonds and a 50% tilt toward longer bonds. Utilities, healthcare, and consumer staples could receive a 25%–35% share, while 10%–20% could be placed in defense sector equities. The recommendations keep an eye on debt levels and the potential for interest rate moves to alter risk and return dynamics.
The end‑of‑year rally
Jaime Raga of UBS Asset Management Iberia cautions that optimism about upside in stocks should be tempered by slowing growth and ongoing earnings revisions turning negative. Yet the UBS analyst notes that conditions exist for a market rebound by year’s end, with a shift in focus toward fixed income assets that offer real return potential. The landscape has shifted markedly over the past year, with higher rates and a visible rebalancing of risk that could set the stage for selective gains in equities and more stable income generation.
Inflation forecast according to BBVA
Joaquín García Huerga, head of Global Strategy at BBVA Asset Management, cautions that the labor market remains tight in both the United States and the euro area. This persistence may hinder a rapid decline in inflation in 2024. He suggests that inflation might hover around 2% in both regions, influencing policy and pricing trends across global markets. The message underscores the need for careful monitoring of employment data as a driver of inflation expectations.
Who benefits from falling interest rates?
During recent volatility, stocks sensitive to interest rates tended to perform well. Notable beneficiaries include Grifols and Cellnex, both carrying substantial debt—where a decline in rates could ease financing costs. Tourism equities also benefited from resilient demand despite global tensions. Banks like BBVA and fashion retailer Inditex stood out with robust results, contributing to a more favorable risk environment for equities as rates showed signs of stabilizing.
Follow the trends
For those who prefer to take a practical view, market outcomes are closely tied to corporate strategies and sector dynamics. Stock movements influence hiring, investments, and competitive positioning, which in turn shape the broader economy. Saving in the stock market has at times changed family finances for better or worse, but trends still matter and deserve close attention for readers weighing investment decisions.