Electricity prices are set to rise on Thursday, with an anticipated average around 169.13 euros per megawatt hour (MWh) after a three-day pullback in the Iberian wholesale market. This shift follows the auction results announced on Wednesday and reflects the immediate impact of market dynamics on the day-ahead settlement for Spain and Portugal. The pricing signal comes as the wholesale market absorbs changes from generation mix, demand patterns, and regional policy influences that shape daily fluctuations in wholesale energy pricing. (Source: OMIE; attribution to Iberian wholesale market data.)
The final average price appears to be the aggregate of a Thursday reading near 131.31 euro/MWh in the same auction cycle, with a temporary adjustment by rights holders used to compensate facilities that rely on certain energy sources for generation, which adds approximately 37.82 euro/MWh to the total for the following day. This composite figure illustrates how distinct components, including reliability mechanisms and compensation schemes, contribute to the day-ahead price and how stakeholders manage volatility within the Iberian market framework. (Source: OMIE; attribution to Iberian Gas Market and related mechanisms.)
Data from the Iberian Electricity Market Operator (OMIE) and the Iberian Gas Market (Mibgas) indicate that, absent the so-called Iberian mechanism that caps natural gas prices for electricity production, tomorrow’s wholesale price would be around 175.99 euros/MWh. This highlights the sensitivity of the regional market to gas price governance and the role of market interventions in stabilizing or distorting price signals for producers and consumers alike. (Source: OMIE; Mibgas attribution.)
In terms of hourly dynamics, the forecast shows a peak near 190.72 euros/MWh between 20:00 and 21:00 local time, while the trough appears around 03:00 to 04:00, when prices could dip to 81.80 euro/MWh. These time-of-day variations reflect demand patterns, grid constraints, and fuel mix shifts that influence short-term price ramps. Market observers watch these intraday swings to assess risk exposure and operational planning across generation fleets. (Source: OMIE; Mibgas attribution.)
Despite the near-term uptick, the broader year-over-year picture remains softer, as the price level discussed still sits well below the roughly 291 euro/MW recorded a year earlier, representing a marked decrease of about 42%. This comparison helps analysts gauge the effectiveness of recent policy positions, procurement strategies, and seasonal demand changes in shaping longer-term price trajectories for Iberia. (Source: OMIE; historical context attribution.)