The wholesale electricity market is showing signs of a slight dip for Tuesday, with an expected drop of about 0.83 percent from Monday’s level. The market price hovers around the 200 euro per megawatt hour (MWh) mark as traders eye the day’s movements.
In particular, the average price for electricity on Tuesday is forecast at 193.32 euros per MWh, about 1.62 euros lower than Monday’s 194.94 euros. This data comes from the Iberian energy market operator, OMIE, which tracks daily settlements across the region.
Forecasts indicate the day’s highest price will occur between 22:00 and 23:00 at roughly 228.81 euros per MWh, while the evening dip is expected between 17:00 and 18:00, with a minimum near 164.07 euros per MWh for the day.
Compared with a year ago, the Tuesday average price is set to be substantially higher, roughly 142.59 percent above the 79.69 euros per MWh recorded on the same date in 2021.
The term pool prices directly influence the regulated tariff, known as PVPC, which serves as a benchmark for about 11 million households in the country and another large group of consumers who have chosen to switch to the free market.
Data from the National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC) show that around 1.25 million people moved from PVPC to a fixed-price option in the year 2021, highlighting a shift toward price stability for many families.
The latest monthly bill trend shows that the average electricity expense in May reached 120.68 euros, a rise of 46.9 percent compared with 82.13 euros in the same month of the previous year. This places last month’s bill among the higher points in historical PVPC records, as reported by Facua-Consumidores en Acción.
Gas cap awaiting approval
In mid-May, the Official State Gazette published a royal decree establishing a mechanism to cap gas prices used for electricity generation at an average of 48.8 euros per MWh over a 12-month horizon, designed to influence costs through the upcoming winter season.
Although the decree outlines the cap, it awaits formal approval through an ecological transition order required for Brussels to finalize the decision and implement the measure.
Officials estimate a reduction in the average bill for regulated PVPC customers by about 15.3 percent once the mechanism is in place, based on a European impact assessment accompanying the decree and the ceiling for gas-fired electricity generation.
For industrial customers fully exposed to spot prices, the government projects a broader range of relief, roughly between 18 and 20 percent. The forecasts suggest monthly variations, with a larger effect in the early months of the mechanism and a tapering effect toward the end of the period.
However, senior policymakers note there are still uncertainties in calculating the precise price drop. When the gas cap takes effect, managers expect fluctuations in forecasts, with potential gains in the 15 to 20 percent range depending on market conditions and consumption patterns.