Spain faces a renewed drought risk that could again limit electricity production. After a historically difficult year for 2022, the lack of rain is now directly curbing hydroelectric output across the country.
Earlier this winter, heavy but brief rains briefly lifted hydro Generation, helping to push the first quarter of the year above the lows seen in 2022. Hydroelectric generation rose about 66% in the January-to-March period compared with the same months in bleak 2022, but the rebound appears fragile and temporary amid continuing dry conditions.
As winter faded, hydropower fell short of the prior trend. Waterfalls and reservoirs declined, and generation slipped in April by about 15% to 1,531 gigawatt hours (GWh), with a further drop of roughly 31% in the first half of May to 754 GWh, according to data from Red Eléctrica de España (REE). There is mounting concern that persistent drought could sustain lower production levels into the coming months.
dwindling reserves
The electricity sector and the government have been cautious in forecasting hydroelectric output for the near future, or the year as a whole, given how precipitation remains volatile and unpredictable. Projections do not anticipate strong rainfall in the medium term, and energy companies fear another difficult summer that could extend the decline in hydroelectric capacity after 2022.
Spanish reservoirs continue to drain. The weekly hydrological report from the Ministry of Ecological Transition shows current reserves at about 48% of total capacity, well below the roughly 69% ten-year average for this date. This trend underscores how fragile hydro prospects are in a year that already tested energy systems across the nation.
Overall hydro storage now sits around 66.6% of capacity, a level that has fallen steadily for months and remains well under the ten-year average (78.1%) and the five-year benchmark (72.7%).
A negative record 2022
The year 2022 stands out as a historic low for the hydro sector. Hydroelectric facilities produced far less energy due to prolonged drought, generating only about 17,900 GWh for the entire year, a drop of roughly 40% from the previous year and the worst annual total in more than three decades for the system operator REE. This drought-driven contraction contributed to a broader shift away from hydro toward fossil fuels for power generation.
The hydro shortfall in 2022 compounded other factors, including weaker wind output for months and export constraints with neighboring countries, as France and Portugal faced their own hydric challenges. This combination pushed utilities to rely more on gas-fired plants to meet demand. REE data show gas-fired generation rising to 68,183 GWh in 2022, up 53% from the prior year, making combined-cycle units a dominant force in the electricity mix and accounting for nearly a quarter of total energy production. Nuclear and wind could not compensate for the shortfall.
Coal-fired plants, still in operation, also benefited from higher wholesale prices, boosting output by around 56% to 7,797 GWh. This helped some plants remain profitable during periods of high energy prices. The shift away from hydro and toward fossil fuels contributed to a rebound in CO2 emissions that had trended downward for several years. In 2022, electricity producers emitted about 44.5 million tons of CO2 equivalent, a 24% increase from the previous year, reflecting the broader climate impact of the generation mix.