Nearly two decades have passed since Russia’s elections, whether presidential, parliamentary, or local, stopped reflecting public opinion or the political leanings of its citizens. In the vast Eurasian state, the entire electoral system, from candidate proclamation to vote counting, appears engineered to prevent the opposition from fielding viable candidates or challenging President Vladimir Putin’s policies, especially his decision to invade a neighboring country. With the presidential results this weekend likely to be ignored by many, this guide helps readers interpret the vote, gauge the mood of Russian public opinion, and identify indicators that hint at who truly backs the Kremlin leader or even the Ukraine conflict itself.
The Navalny funeral reveals a hidden base of support for the opposition
The first sign that reveals the real state of public sentiment emerged even before the controversial polls. The death of Alexei Navalny, an event analysts often view as a product of mounting Kremlin impunity, drew long lines at his tomb that stretched for days despite heavy police presence. It exposed a troubling reality for Moscow’s leadership: neither the liberal opposition nor Putin or the Ukraine war enjoy the level of approval suggested by surveys. The Kremlin did everything possible, from pressuring Navalny’s family with the handover of his body to sending thousands of security personnel to the cemetery and church, to prevent what happened: a large, peaceful funeral that could have become a pro-peace demonstration.
Absence of sparring candidates signals regime anxiety
The rule is clear: no room for surprises. This has shaped Kremlin strategists’ approach in the weeks leading up to the vote. Unlike past presidential campaigns, no candidate challenging the system or the military operation is allowed. Ekaterina Duntsova, a journalist and former municipal councilor advocating peace and a democratic Russia, was disqualified in September for alleged documentation defects. “You’re a young woman; you have your whole future ahead,” said the electoral commission chair Ella Pamfilova.
Next came Boris Nadezhdin, a city official for over 30 years, who managed to collect the 100,000 signatures required with a pro-peace message and a plan to restore Western relations, prompting a counter-slogan to Putin: “Putin must go.” The long lines for signatures likely helped his bid be rejected by authorities. This stands in stark contrast to earlier campaigns where liberal candidates such as Ksenia Sobchak or Yevgeny Yavlinsky were permitted to run, achieving tiny shares of the vote.
These moves lead Carmen Claudín, senior researcher at the Barcelona Centre for International Affairs, to observe that Moscow’s outward confidence in the war’s trajectory translates into a tighter internal grip. “There is a need for control,” she notes.
The mood at polling stations matters more than the results
In Russia, polling places often feel desolate and passive during elections. This was striking during the 2016 legislative elections, when campaign activity was muted, polling sites were nearly empty, and journalists had to search for voters approximately every 15 minutes. A notable example was the 2021 constitutional referendum, where voters encountered incentives from lottery tickets to gifts at polling centers decorated with balloons, while orchestrated music played and civic life appeared staged. The legitimacy of these results is questioned, especially after dissident analyst Grigori Melkonyants, founder of Golos (an electoral monitoring NGO), was detained and remains in prison on charges linked to an organization deemed undesirable.
Post-election celebrations reveal elite attitudes toward the day
The mood at Russia United’s Moscow headquarters on the night of September 2021, following a major legislative vote, was chilly. Moscow mayor Sergei Sobyanin led a drumbeat of chants for the president as attendees repeated the name with little conviction: “Putin, Putin, Putin.” The crowd’s measured reaction contrasted with the energy seen after victories abroad. Analysts note that if the election had been fair, United Russia and the Communist Party (KPRF) might have been nearly tied in results. Navalny’s recommendation to vote for the communists as a workaround to disqualifications hints at a visible protest vote that surfaces only in elections. Most observers now agree that successive polls are used by the leadership to gauge public sentiment while maintaining control over political outcomes.