Researchers from Wageningen University in the Netherlands collaborated with colleagues from the United States and the United Kingdom to reveal how states, societies, and political systems become more fragile over time. The findings were reported in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, a leading venue for cross-disciplinary science.
The study builds on a long line of inquiry into the triggers of social collapse, which scientists typically trace to invasions, coups, natural disasters, and resource stress. What sets this work apart is the demonstration that pre-modern states faced a rapidly rising risk of unraveling in the first two centuries following their founding, a window when vulnerability peaked before some stabilize and endure.
Across five millennia, researchers examined 324 pre-modern states to understand how aging political systems interact with internal and external pressures. The results show that multiple mechanisms—ranging from environmental damage to widening economic inequality—continue to influence stability in contemporary contexts as well.
One co-author, Tim Kohler, notes that attention often centers on external shocks such as droughts or catastrophes. These events do matter, but their power as triggers depends on the internal dynamics and strength of a society at a given moment. The study provides a framework for interpreting how internal resilience or fragility modulates the impact of external stressors.
The team applied a model analogous to estimating mortality risk in humans, where the probability of death climbs as age advances. In societies, a similar principle emerges: the likelihood of collapse rises sharply during the first two centuries after a state’s founding, then levels off, enabling some polities to outlive the average lifespan of their era. This pattern appears across geographic regions, from Europe’s early polities to the civilizations of the Americas and the long-standing dynasties of East Asia.
Historically, it is clear that certain societies managed to resist or weather crises for extended periods. Achieving this endurance often required fundamental transformations in governance, economic organization, and social cohesion. When such radical reforms occurred, they could reset a society’s trajectory and extend its survival well beyond the typical span.
These insights emerge from careful analysis of historical records and a careful synthesis of cross-cultural data. While external shocks are part of the story, the researchers emphasize that the inner structure of a state—its institutions, wealth distribution, and ability to adapt—plays a pivotal role in determining whether a society collapses or endures. The implications extend to modern policy discussions about stability, governance, and resilience in the face of ongoing challenges.
In reviewing the findings, the researchers also point to the possibility that some long-lived states owe their durability to cumulative reforms that altered the balance of power, resources, and incentives. In others, persistent inequalities undermined social cohesion and raised the likelihood of disruptive transitions. The study thus highlights a spectrum of pathways leading to stability or fragility, rather than a single universal rule.
Taken together, the study offers a comprehensive view of how aging political structures can become more vulnerable over time, while also showing how strategic changes can extend their lifespans. The work contributes to a growing field that connects historical patterns with contemporary questions about governance, development, and risk management.
Further research will likely refine the timelines and mechanisms that shape political resilience, and will explore how modern states might apply these lessons to bolster stability in the face of environmental stress, demographic shifts, and economic upheaval. The broader message is that stability is not a fixed trait but a dynamic balance that depends on internal capability as much as external pressures, a balance that has governed societies for thousands of years.
Previous scholars have teased apart the causes behind the decline of empires, including references to the fall of China’s last imperial dynasty. The current work builds on that tradition by offering a refined lens on how early state formation and internal dynamics interact with external shocks to influence longevity and collapse risk.