American researchers have presented evidence that the hot hand in basketball is real, backed by a study in a peer reviewed journal.
For years, fans and players debated whether a player could slip into a hot hand state, delivering a streak of successful shots in rapid succession. Many coaches, commentators, and scientists doubted the idea, arguing that streaks could come down to luck, much like a coin landing on the same side repeatedly. Yet the concept sticks in basketball culture, even appearing in popular video games where a streak lights up after consecutive points. The excitement returns whenever a standout run occurs, such as Stephen Curry’s recent training streaks during the seasons in North America.
A team led by Konstantinos Pelecrinis at the University of Pittsburgh conducted a rigorous statistical examination to determine if a genuine warm up effect exists in real game conditions. Earlier studies often focused on single shot types, like free throws or threes. But in real play, sequences vary and involve many factors beyond one shot type.
To capture the complexity of game situations, the researchers built a statistical model that accounts for multiple variables: who shoots, the distance to the basket, the shot type, the proximity of the nearest defender, the identity of the closest defender, whether a pass preceded the attempt, and more. The growth of basketball analytics in North America made it possible to analyze large numbers of games without watching every shot in real time.
With this model, it becomes possible to estimate the likelihood of success for any given shot sequence. By comparing the actual shooting percentage during a streak with the model’s predicted percentage for the same game situations, researchers can assess whether a hot hand effect is present. For example, if a player faces a situation in which the model predicts a 46 percent success rate but the player shoots at a 55 percent rate during a streak, this would align with a hot hand phenomenon.
In their analysis, the study looked at the games of 153 players who had taken at least 1,000 shots across the 2013-14 and 2014-15 seasons. Streaks were evaluated after one, two, three, and four consecutive makes. When all players are considered together, the chance of making a third shot after two makes was about 1.9 percent lower than the model predicted, suggesting a cold hand effect on average. Still, individual players showed varied patterns, and some displayed clear warm up benefits within certain sequences.
At the level of individual players, a different picture emerges. The analysis identified that a subset of players showed statistically significant streaks where their actual performance diverged from model expectations. Across the group of thirty players who stood out in this way, average gains appeared on the third attempt and continued on the fourth and fifth attempts, implying a measurable warm hand in some individuals.
Researchers caution that possessing a warm hand does not guarantee success from any spot on the court. The phenomenon often appears among players whose roles are not primarily about long range shooting. The team proposed that a productive pattern may arise when a player scans the defense for favorable opportunities, identifies them, and repeatedly targets those options until fatigue or defensive adjustments intervene. For instance, spotting a weaker defender and exploiting that matchup could drive a successful run in a specific area of the court.
Experts emphasize that the warm hand would not be identical to fans’ notion of a blazing fire of flawless shooting. Rather, it may reflect a player’s ability to find and capitalize on favorable opponents or situations during a sequence, rather than a sudden supernatural boost of skill.
The researchers do not claim to settle the discussion on hot hands, but they hope their approach spurs further studies and more nuanced analyses of how players perform in streaks. Beyond academic interest, the methodology could help coaches recognize and cultivate streak aware decision making in players, translating insights from data into practical training and strategy on the court.