For the second year in a row, hiring indicators show a dip during Black Friday as companies tighten their recruitment drive. In prior cycles, forecasts suggested hiring would slow compared with the year before, and some industry observers noted smaller gains while campaigns and discounts dominated the season. The narrative pointed to a low point in recent years, yet another year a similar pattern emerged. The sector that relies on seasonal demand appears poised to weather the slowdown by relying on established staffing levels, not starting from scratch.
Early projections indicated that contract signings would be fewer than the previous year, while vacancies in the campaign sectors rose at the start of the period. The increase was modest, and the overall momentum lagged behind the double-digit gains seen in the previous year. The core explanation ties back to labor reforms that began to take effect last year, aimed at curbing excessive temporary employment. Those reforms created new hurdles for hiring in many fields, especially in contracting arrangements common to this period.
Nevertheless, the reforms also supported steady growth in related trades such as logistics and distribution. Analysts noted that the outlook for consumption in the coming months could slow, yet hiring pools remained active in parts of the market due to the fundamental staffing needs created by a shifting economy. The sector faced a dual pressure: a continuing shift in purchasing and consumption habits after recent disruptions, along with ongoing digital transformation that reshapes job requirements and workflows. Though demand for goods and services contracted in some areas, hiring in critical positions remained resilient in others.
Trade and logistics
Recent labor market data show that the retail trade sector, which directly serves consumers, added a notable number of workers this year. A large share of these hires occurred in the third quarter, a period that traditionally combines summer activity with preparations for the holiday season. This alignment of hiring with the calendar underscores the sector’s readiness for the peak shopping period and the year that follows.
Monthly metrics reveal that employment in the sector has peaked at mid-year and then moderated through autumn, with a turn toward stronger activity as demand picks up again. Within logistics, the shipping and storage subsector closed the most robust third quarter on record. The October trend suggested continued growth in transportation roles, while warehousing hiring paused with a slight dip of around 0.1 percent.
Industry observers noted a clear pattern: the balance between vacancies and hires remains favorable for positions in purchasing, logistics, and warehouse management. The ongoing cycle points to a year ending on solid employment figures, supported by two major consumer campaigns that drive retail activity. The Black Friday and Christmas campaigns concentrate spending in the final months of the year, reinforcing the seasonal importance of the logistics and distribution chain. These patterns reflect both the industry’s capacity to absorb demand and the persistent demand for skilled labor as companies prepare for holiday volumes, inventory management, and post-season resets.