Greece heads to the polls to shape its political future
On Sunday, May 21, Greece will vote to decide who leads the country in the years ahead. At the start of the year, Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis appeared poised to reinforce his party’s victory. Yet a deadly train crash—one of the worst in the nation’s history—shattered the perceived momentum for the Conservative Party and strengthened the opposition’s position as the country prepared for parliamentary voting. Although a decisive majority in parliament remains unlikely, the scene is set for a challenging campaign and a parliament that may require coalition-building to govern effectively.
Similar to 2019, the center-right is expected to control a sizable share of the 300 seats up for grabs. Polls place Mitsotakis’s New Democracy party around the mid-30s in percentage, a few points down from the last election. He came to power with a pledge to tackle Greece’s economic challenges, but a cascade of global events—wars, energy tensions, and regional strains—has continually disrupted the political narrative and credibility. The country’s recent economic indicators show improvement in macro metrics such as GDP, foreign investment, and tourism, with unemployment moving toward pre-crisis norms. This stability undeniably supports the Prime Minister’s standing, even as recent months have chipped away at his broad support and raised questions about reelection and the target of sustained two-digit unemployment.
Syriza pushes for change
The main challenger with a real shot at overtaking New Democracy is Syriza, aiming for roughly 29% of the vote. The radical left coalition, led by former premier Alexis Tsipras, has pointed to security gaps that followed the rail disaster as a sign the government needs major reforms. Tsipras has also highlighted concerns about internal security abuses and surveillance, arguing for greater transparency and accountability. He drew attention to a controversial episode last year involving a government-linked affair with digital surveillance tools and the use of a virus to probe political rivals and journalists. While Tsipras backed new transparency measures, he also called for a formal commission to investigate the wider issues, insisting that the public deserves a clear accounting of events.
Pasok holds the balance
Pasok, once the strongest political force in Greece, is re-emerging after years of fiscal adjustments and reform-oriented concessions. The social democratic party is targeting around 10% of the vote, pledging stronger health services, a greener transition, and higher transparency. Its path remains pivotal because the third major party could swing the balance toward a New Democracy-led coalition or toward a red administration. Analysts suggest Pasok could become a kingmaker in the formation of a governing majority, and some market observers expect a coalition with New Democracy to appeal to investors. If neither bloc secures a clear majority, post-election negotiations would begin in earnest, and a fresh political calendar could be triggered if coalition talks fail and early elections are needed.
Other parties and stability bets
The overall dynamics suggest that the decline in support for New Democracy and Syriza could be offset by a stronger role for smaller factions. Any party above the 3 percent threshold wins representation in the Hellenic Parliament. In this context, the Communist Party (KKE) is showing an unusual uptick, potentially reaching around 7%. After them, MeRA25, founded by former Syriza finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, is polling in the low single digits to mid-range. A left-wing coalition remains a possibility, but analysts warn it would require unlikely alliances and significant political realignment. The feasibility of a left bloc depends on whether factions like the communists will engage with others and whether past frictions among Syriza, Varoufakis, and Tsipras can be overcome. A broad left-government scenario would require considerable negotiation and a willingness to compromise, something that both major blocs have signaled they might resist.
Other smaller groups are forecast to register around 4% each, including Greek Solution, a right-leaning, nationalist party with a pro-Russian stance, and the far-right Greek National Party, led by Ilias Kasidiaris, who remains under legal restrictions tied to earlier criminal convictions. Observers note that these smaller formations could influence the overall balance in a tightly divided Parliament, especially if turnout shifts in unexpected ways. Analysts emphasize that the Greek political landscape remains highly fluid, with public opinion susceptible to rapid change as campaigns unfold and new developments arise.