Since the Russian president Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion that began twenty months ago, the war has placed Europe at the center of the continent’s security and political recalibration. The European Union’s future, once seen as conditional, is now framed in terms of when and how enlargement will proceed. Two decades after a period of paralysis, the Thessaloniki decisions, and the dawning recognition that membership in the EU is a source of prosperity and stability, Western Balkan states are reassessing their doubts. War has sharpened the sense that expansion must be pursued so the union can reinforce security and resilience. The process of reform and reflection is unfolding in granular fashion across candidate countries and at the European level, with a formal start this week in Granada, where an informal summit of EU leaders is hosted by Spain.
The draft declaration, obtained by EL PERIÓDICO from the Prensa Ibérica group, begins with a bedrock commitment from the Twenty-Seven: in Granada, the Union will launch a process to outline the general political directions and priorities for the coming years. It is clear this won’t be easy. Decisions among 27 members are rarely swift. Yet if the enlargement path is to be successful, the concluding text will need to underline that internal reform is essential and that peace, security, and stability are foundational. It will be framed as a geostrategic investment in prosperity.
To ensure the EU’s ongoing success, leaders agree that it is vital to examine the Union’s future dynamics, policies, and decision-making mechanisms. Above all, they must answer the question: what are we doing together? The President of the European Council emphasizes the need for clarity on how decisions will be made, how resources and objectives will be aligned, and how the Union might expand from 27 to 35, even 37 member states. In a letter inviting participants to map the path forward, Charles Michel outlined the ambition for a route that accommodates a larger EU while preserving cohesion.
Starting the gun
This reflection, and the ensuing work, will begin in the Andalusian city and be folded into the new strategic agenda for 2024–2029. Granada is seen as a moment to look back at what has been achieved, to identify gaps, and to set ambitious, concrete goals for the years ahead. It is also a moment to anticipate future challenges and opportunities in a shifting geopolitical landscape, as noted by the former Belgian prime minister during the lead-up to the meeting. The gathering will open with a session of the European Political Community, a dialogue platform launched in Prague last year to foster continental cooperation among about fifty European leaders.
But the move from 27 members to 35 or more will require careful groundwork across political, institutional, and budgetary dimensions. A panel of experts, echoed by France and Germany, has argued that the EU is not yet fully prepared—institutionally or politically—to welcome new members without first clarifying what the Union wants to achieve together, how it will proceed, and who will bear the costs.
New architectural changes could include a streamlined decision-making process, shifting toward wider use of qualified majority voting so no single country can stall crucial choices. This is a reform long advocated by a dozen countries, including Spain, and it would require adjustments at the institutional level, as more commissioners and ministers would participate in Council meetings and Parliament would grow beyond its current 751 seats. Ukraine, for example, could contribute 50 to 60 new MPs under current rules.
A reimagined budget framework would accompany these political reforms. The Common Agricultural Policy currently consumes roughly €370 billion, about 30% of the EU budget. Including Ukraine, with arable land comparable to Italy, would shift the geographic balance of agricultural subsidies, likely elevating Ukraine to become a top recipient and altering net contributor dynamics among member states. An internal Council study cited by the Financial Times suggests that Ukraine’s accession under present terms could place a substantial package in Kyiv’s hands, influencing how funds are distributed and who pays for them in the long run.
Among the topics on Granada’s agenda is the Asylum and Migration Agreement. After a political agreement on crisis regulations, the Twenty-Seven are set to begin negotiations with the European Parliament to finalize the framework before year’s end. The focus is on pragmatic, inter-institutional cooperation that can adapt to flows of migration and regional pressures.
European political community
Before turning to domestic concerns, EU leaders will reconvene with members of the European Political Community, a forum designed to sustain diplomatic coordination at a broader European level. The Granada format mirrors past meetings held in Prague and Chisinau, with four working tables addressing multilateralism, energy and environment, and digitalization and artificial intelligence, followed by a plenary session and a series of bilateral talks.
One anticipated bilateral is with Armenia’s Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev, who will aim to advance a peace process over Nagorno-Karabakh. Reports noted by APA that Aliyev delayed his Granada trip due to tensions with Paris and Berlin over TurkishPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s participation. In response, Erdogan canceled his Granada appearance, attributing the change to the agenda.