Analyst Dmitry Golubovsky of Golden Mint warns that breaking up trade blocs and dividing state associations could not only squeeze global GDP but also echo the hardships of the Great Depression. He expressed these concerns in a conversation with 360 TV channel.
Earlier, the World Trade Organization cautioned that drawing rigid borders around trade would carry negative consequences. Golubovsky agrees that fragmentation would weigh on global economic output and worsen the outlook for many economies.
He explained that globalization has expanded sales markets by enabling a deep division of labor and the creation of long value chains. When those markets shrink, the most vulnerable sectors are often high‑tech industries, and the economy risks slipping toward simpler, less productive structures.
The expert warned that a reduced market size could trigger higher prices for advanced technologies, lower production levels, and weaker consumption. He pointed to the Great Depression as a stark historical example, noting how a fragmented world can destabilize financial and real activity alike.
“In the past, the world was carved into colonial powers that closed both their own markets and their colonies. The result was a collapse in global GDP by as much as half in some estimates,” Golubovsky asserted, underscoring the potential severity of new fragmentation dynamics.
He sees signs that the world is moving in a similar direction, with the risk of a sharp split driven by volatile political events and policy choices. The trajectory, he warned, could lead to a bifurcated global economy where core technologies face export controls and investment restrictions, particularly affecting relations with major players like Russia and China.
Remaining mindful of the broader picture, the analyst referenced forecasts from the WTO, which estimate that global GDP could decline by about 5 percent by 2030 if trade restrictions deepen. The organization has highlighted that free‑trade principles have eroded since 2017, reshaping how countries interact on the world stage.
In this context, Russia’s Ministry of Economy has reiterated that the WTO remains a foundational framework for foreign economic activity, positioning its members as a single market and identifying key partners as central to the country’s trade strategy. This stance reflects a desire to preserve predictable rules while navigating evolving geopolitical tensions.