The Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of the European Union recently reported that the global average temperature for the last twelve months reached the highest level ever recorded. The temperature is 0.64°C above the 1991-2020 average and 1.52°C above the pre-industrial baseline, underscoring a climate situation that experts describe as very worrying. This assessment does not imply a fixed limit, as the Paris Agreement requires monitoring whether a much longer period, typically a decade or more, stays above the 1.5°C threshold to constitute a definitive exceedance.
During the twelve months from February 2023 to January 2024, the anomaly did not exceed the thermal limit in any single month, but the group mean remained consistently above that threshold according to European service sources. The data indicate, for the first time, that global temperatures have sustained this thermal level for an extended period.
Environmental groups such as WWF describe the current climate trend as an earth-shaking moment. They warn that countries and companies must accelerate efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. A statement from WWF emphasizes the urgency of rapid action across all sectors and regions to avoid a continued rise in Earth temperatures.
According to WWF, this development is highly worrying. Unless immediate and deep emission reductions occur globally, Earth temperatures could surpass the 1.5°C mark by the early 2030s, a scenario described as permanent by the organization.
Reduce emissions
The new temperature milestone aligns with the global picture where greenhouse gas emissions also reached record levels, notes Stephanie Roe, a senior scientist in Global Climate and Energy who serves on the UN climate advisory panel. Without a significant emission reduction in the coming years, the long-term 1.5°C threshold could be breached within the next decade.
Preventing further warming is crucial. As temperatures rise, climate change impacts intensify, raising the risk of tipping points and irreversible effects. It is imperative for nations to align policies and financial flows to limit warming to well below 1.5°C, which includes cutting greenhouse gas emissions by at least 43% by 2030. Transformation of economies, energy and food systems, along with protecting and restoring nature, must happen at unprecedented speed and scale.
In January, the agency noted a global surface air temperature average of 13.14°C, which is 0.70°C above the January average for 1991-2020 and 0.12°C higher than the previous January record set in 2020. This marked the eighth consecutive month of exceeding the prior monthly record for that year, highlighting a persistent warming trend observed across continents.
European history is at a peak
In Europe, 2023 was the second hottest year on record with an average 1.02°C above the 1991-2020 mean. It was 0.17°C cooler than 2020, the warmest year on record. The report notes that European temperatures stayed above average for most of 2023, including September, which was the warmest on record for that month.
The winter of 2022-2023 was among the hottest on record, and the summer of 2023 averaged about 19.63°C. That season was 0.83°C above the long-term average, placing it among the warmest summers documented.
The autumn of 2023 registered an average of 10.96°C, roughly 1.43°C above the long-term norm and marking the second hottest autumn in history, narrowly behind 2020. Notable observations included eight months in 2023 with Antarctic ice reaching historically low levels for that time of year, while sea ice in the Arctic showed persistent contraction.
Arctic sea ice extent reached its annual maximum in March, ranking among the four lowest seasonal maximums in satellite records. September’s annual low was the sixth lowest on record. Atmospheric carbon dioxide and methane concentrations continued to rise, coinciding with a suite of climate extremes such as heat waves, floods, droughts and forest fires. Global carbon emissions from wildfires rose by about 30% compared to 2022, driven largely by ongoing fires in Canada. A Copernicus report summarizes these trends in a dedicated update on the year’s climate highlights.
Source: Copernicus Climate Change Service annual highlights report [Attribution: Copernicus Climate Change Service, 2023 highlights].