After years of steady growth in greenhouse gas emissions, researchers do not dismiss the possibility that a turning point has arrived. 2024 could mark the first year where the upward trend begins to reverse. This would be a historic moment, a first step toward addressing the planet’s main illness: global warming. A report from researchers at the University of Exeter in the United Kingdom suggests that 2024 may represent the initial year in which atmospheric CO2 levels start to dip.
New Scientist notes that CO2 emissions and the greenhouse effect have risen consistently since the Industrial Revolution, and 2023 followed that pattern, with a roughly 1% increase over the previous year. The Global Carbon Budget, compiled by Pierre Friedlingstein of Exeter, supports this view and tracks broad emissions trajectories.
The outlook for 2024 carries a sense of potential change. Rapid progress in renewable energy, combined with ongoing efforts to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, has begun to bend the CO2 curve. While industrial activity continues to grow in many regions, the share of clean energy sources is rising, offering a glimpse of a possible decoupling of economic growth from emissions.
China’s key role
Forecasts from major agencies have long suggested that emissions from fossil fuels would peak around the mid-2020s and then decline. The accelerating adoption of renewables and their expanding role in industrialized economies—especially Europe, China, and the United States—could push that peak earlier. The broader adoption of electric vehicles and other low-carbon technologies further contribute to this trend, with China reaching notable milestones in 2024. This marks a potential turning point in the shift away from high-polluting fuels, though the transition is not immediate.
A recent study published by CREA, based in Helsinki, projects that China will peak its emissions around 2030. This comes in spite of ongoing approvals for new coal-fired power plants to meet energy needs. CREA researchers also highlight the likelihood of a structural decline in the country’s emissions beginning in 2024, signaling a longer-term downward trajectory.
Other analyses suggest that peak emissions by 2030 could be even earlier than previously thought. While some oil-producing nations plan to increase output in the near term, there is a broad expectation that renewable energy capacity will expand more rapidly than fossil fuels in many regions.
The overarching goal discussed at COP28 remains to reach net-zero emissions by 2050. Experts view this target as essential to limiting global warming to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Achieving this will be challenging and may require sustained effort over many years, but the consensus is that even partial progress would help keep warming within manageable limits.
Reference work: New Scientist article from 2024 on potential declines in greenhouse gas emissions.
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