A stark warning is resonating through the scientific community. The clock is ticking to shield the planet and its people from the harshest climate impacts, with a stark forecast: the 1.5 degree Celsius limit could be breached within six years. A study originally planned to reach conclusions by 2100 highlights that every tonne of carbon dioxide kept out of the atmosphere matters, according to findings published in Nature Climate Change.
This represents the most up-to-date and comprehensive assessment to date of the global carbon budget. The budget outlines the total emissions allowed to keep warming within safe bounds, specifically to limit the rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century in line with the Paris Agreement’s goals to curb the climate crisis.
Forecast calculations
In January 2023, the remaining allowable emissions stood at just under 250 gigatonnes of CO2. If emissions stay at current levels, staying below 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels remains feasible only for a few more years. The budget would be exhausted around 2029 if trends persist.
Change of global warming in August Copernican
Maintaining the present rate of emissions, roughly 40 GtCO2 released in 2022, would deplete the carbon budget within this decade, making it impossible to keep warming below 1.5 degrees without rapid changes. The same analysis shows that the budget for staying under 2 degrees would be about 1,200 GtCO2 and would be surpassed by 2046 if the current path continues.
However, with precious little budget left to avoid breaching the Paris targets, scientists stress that any shift in emission levels could alter these timelines.
Worse than previously believed
The study suggests the remaining carbon budget is smaller than earlier estimates, shrinking by roughly half since 2020 amid a continuing rise in global emissions.
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One of the lead researchers, Robin Lamboll from Imperial College London, described at a briefing that the data align with a troubling reality: the world is not on track to keep warming within safe levels, and the window to meet the 1.5 degree target is narrowing. The consequences of each additional degree of warming would intensify hardships for people and ecosystems alike. This report stands as a stark reminder that governments must turn commitments into action.
Lamboll stressed that the findings are not a call to surrender but a warning that every tonne of CO2 matters. The message is clear: decisive measures now can still influence the trajectory, even if the goal remains challenging.
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Even if temperatures briefly exceed the 1.5 degree line, there remains a path to a safer future if nations accelerate net-zero efforts by mid-century as outlined in global climate accords. The study’s results draw on current forecasts, climate models, and recent data updates.
Additional updates continue to shape the picture as researchers compare new information with established projections.
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