A Spanish foreign minister Rafael Albares is known for returning to certain metaphors, and the ones used about the Gibraltar Treaty shed light on negotiations that remain almost entirely secret. In December 2022, he said the ball was in the United Kingdom’s court. It was the first bold statement from the foreign minister on the topic after nearly two years of talks. Spain had put forward a detailed, concrete, generous, and reasonable proposal, he argued, and London should either accept or reject it.
This Thursday, upon arriving in Brussels for pivotal talks to shape the new arrangement for the territory after Brexit, the tone of the Spanish foreign affairs chief was notably more hopeful. When a journalist asked, “Is the ball still in the UK’s court?” he replied, “The ball will be inside the negotiating room today, and we will all play it together, as we have since April 12 and throughout these weeks.” The minister was referring to the first four-way meeting held with his counterpart, a European Commission vice president, and Gibraltar’s chief minister.
But after six hours of discussions, the news was not encouraging. First, the United Kingdom issued a concise joint statement, prepared with Spain, that offered little politically beyond the usual goodwill and an agreement to keep negotiating. “We will not make further statements on this matter,” London added. The British prime minister left Brussels without speaking to reporters. No deal, no meaningful progress to report. In another framing of Albares: “Two are needed to dance a tango.”
Both sides have asked their technicians to continue negotiations in the coming days, yet there has been no talk of repeating this unprecedented format of political dialogue. One thing is clear: for the first time, the Gibraltar sovereign talks included the “llanito” chief minister of Gibraltar sitting at the same table as a European Commission vice president and two ministers from two major states.
But those diplomatic symbols pale next to the possible benefits a deal could bring, especially for the people in the Bay of Algeciras region and the residents of Gibraltar itself.
Some 15,000 workers cross the border daily to work on the Rock, making up half of the territory’s workforce. Thousands more British citizens or “Llanitos” living in Gibraltar also cross for a range of reasons, including seeking homes with more space and pools in places like Sotogrande.
In total, around 300,000 people would be affected in one way or another by the agreement, benefiting or losing depending on what the final terms look like. The Algeciras mayor warned the deal could adversely impact the port’s competitiveness if the arrangements do not balance interests on both sides.
The negotiators have spent two years in dozens of official rounds, hundreds of videoconferences, and endless document exchanges. They must define every detail in a treaty that will be large, complex, and historic. How to control the entry and exit of people and goods if the border gate between Gibraltar and Cadiz is opened? How to harmonize tax differences to prevent the territory from siphoning all commerce? What happens to the military bases that host the Royal Navy port and the RAF airport? How to verify the thousands of soldiers and material arriving each year? How to jointly manage the airport so it can service routes to Madrid, Barcelona, or London? How to create a shared prosperity zone in the Campo de Gibraltar and Gibraltar without compromising each side’s claims of sovereignty?
The current phase of the treaty talks resembles a tennis match, with back-and-forth exchanges. It is effectively a tiny Brexit. Yet there is little appetite to stretch this out. Autumn brings UK elections that could shift the government, and European elections will soon follow, with a Parliament and a new Commission that must continue negotiations and enact Gibraltar-related legislation. The rising strength of far-right forces and the tight parliamentary arithmetic do not promise an easy negotiating environment.
At the end of 2020, Spain and the United Kingdom agreed on provisional rules. Border checks were eased temporarily, but local officials say conditions for entry and exit are still unclear and dependent on goodwill. There have been preventable clashes. Recently, four British soldiers were expelled after repeated border movements on the same day; the reason remains unclear. Guardia Civil officers faced rocks thrown at them while pursuing tobacco traffickers, with limited support from Gibraltar police. Spanish fishermen continue to face pressure from border patrols patrolling waters that Madrid considers Spanish waters.
For now, Thursday’s talks have not yielded any conclusive agreement, and there is no sign of a breakthrough. In another frequently heard line by the Spanish foreign minister: “Nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.”
Marked uncertainties remain as negotiators press forward, hoping to bridge divergent priorities and craft a unified framework that respects sovereignty claims while promoting practical cooperation across the border. The path forward will require patience, pragmatic compromises, and a willingness to translate political symbolism into concrete, mutually beneficial outcomes for both sides and the communities most affected.
[Attribution: analysis of diplomatic developments in the Gibraltar Treaty context based on public statements and official briefings]