Political instability in the United Kingdom has unsettled the daily lives of thousands living near the border between Spain and Gibraltar. Two years after Brexit and ten months of talks to shape the future relationship with Gibraltar, the special status for the British colony remains unresolved as both sides wait for a concrete breakthrough on the Northern Ireland Protocol from the European Union and the United Kingdom.
As the country prepares for a new prime ministerial contest, any potential successor to Downing Street will face a tough task. Whether it is former Finance Minister Rishi Sunak or former Foreign Secretary Liz Truss, the winner must demonstrate the ability to navigate soaring inflation and a spike in energy prices not seen in decades, while also pursuing pragmatic dialogue with Brussels to clear hurdles in the Gibraltar talks.
Technical discussions on the future of Gibraltar’s common welfare zone with the European Union have taken place since October 2021, but no firm closure date for an agreement has emerged. The United Kingdom, the European Union, and Spain, which plays a recognized role in the negotiations, insist that all steps be taken in a constructive manner. Yet the message has echoed for months without crystallizing into a concrete deal, leaving the path forward unclear.
Liz Truss, a Labour member of the Conservative leadership race and former British Foreign Secretary, told El País in December 2021 that the objective was to reach a Gibraltar agreement by the end of March. In Spain, government sources recently reassured the newspaper that progress is being made, but a resolution is not expected at this time. The core question remains: what is blocking a settlement for Gibraltar?
David Phinnemore, a European politics scholar at Queen’s University Belfast, notes that the current UK-EU relationship is fragile. The lack of trust hinders progress across issues until an understanding on the Northern Ireland Protocol is reached. This assessment was shared by a Spanish newspaper affiliated with the Prensa Ibérica group. He added that last June Boris Johnson described the protocol as broken unilaterally, and that there is little information about Gibraltar, making it very difficult to gauge what happens next and to move the situation forward.
Meanwhile residents on both sides of the gate monitor Westminster closely as they await a resolution that would regulate traffic across a border area that employs more than 15,000 cross-border workers.
The European Union has signaled that talks will not advance until the obligations in the exit agreement are fulfilled in good faith, and observers note that the transition of power in the UK could influence the pace of talks. The focus remains on whether the incoming administration can unblock the situation, as the current internal contest prioritizes issues such as inflation and energy costs over the protocol.
Instability in Downing Street continues to shape expectations. The outcome of the contest between Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak will be decided in early September, and the campaign centers on economic and energy concerns. The result could set the trajectory for Gibraltar and the broader relationship with the European Union.
The contest has already highlighted divergent approaches. Johnson’s tenure underscored a willingness to challenge the Northern Ireland Protocol within his party, underscoring that Brexit remains influential but not the sole driver of Conservative support. The eventual winner could determine how quickly open disputes about Gibraltar are resolved, because a stronger alignment with the Northern Ireland protocol would complement a negotiated solution for the Rock.
Sunak has framed himself as a steadfast supporter of Brexit and has signaled a readiness to confront the EU if needed. His public posture, shaped by the events that culminated in Johnson’s resignation, projects a tough stance toward Brussels. Truss, having faced months of diplomatic silence, appears more open to resuming talks with European counterparts, although nothing is guaranteed.
The two candidates acknowledge that the party’s internal dynamics will shape the path to a negotiated settlement with the European Union. They emphasize a commitment to a protocol that would solidify the government’s position while leaving room for a bilateral agreement with the EU. Observers caution that the September deadline will test both candidates as the party weighs the best route to resolution.
Current polling paints a mixed picture. One forecast suggests Liz Truss could secure a clear leadership mandate, while other trends show a sizable portion of Conservative voters ready to back Johnson if given the chance. The broader implication is a party navigating internal divisions even as it seeks a stable stance on Brexit-related issues.
In this climate, the fate of Gibraltar is closely tied to the evolving UK-EU relationship and the handling of the Northern Ireland Protocol. The coming months will reveal whether the new leadership can deliver a cohesive plan that satisfies Brussels, Madrid, and the local communities on both sides of the border, or whether tensions will prolong a stalemate that affects daily life and cross-border commerce.