In October 2022, Moscow appointed Sergei Surovikin to lead the Russian offensive in Ukraine, a decision connected to a broader shift in the war’s leadership. The move placed Surovikin, often seen as a capable air force commander, in a central role as the front line strategy intensified. He emerged as a prominent figure in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, with the defense ministry under Sergei Shoigu guiding the ground operations. Surovikin had long been a familiar presence within the Russian military, having served as chief of staff for a decade and earning a reputation as a trusted military leader.
Security services in Ukraine have pointed to Sergei Gerasimov as an influential participant on the battlefield, particularly concerning events in eastern Ukraine. The 2014 battle of Ilovaisk, where roughly one thousand Ukrainian soldiers were killed, is cited as a turning point in the conflict. Moscow has neither confirmed nor denied these reports. Across the war in Donbas, pro-Russian militias received support from Moscow, while Ukrainian regular forces conducted counteractions as Moscow issued strategic directives from above. As the fighting unfolded between self-proclaimed republics in Donetsk and Luhansk and Kyiv, Moscow provided varied levels of support that aligned with its broader objectives in the region.
A military veteran, Gerasimov has spent most of his life in service to the army, beginning his career in the Soviet era during the late 1970s. Born in 1955, he rose through the ranks to become a key figure in Russian military leadership, with promotions to the highest levels of command. His decorations include the Order of St. George, the Medal for Merit to the Fatherland, and the Order of Alexander Nevsky, among others. One honour repeatedly highlighted in state media was the designation of him as a national hero, a title attributed through secret decree. Reports from outlets such as Kommersant have linked him to Russia’s support for its allies and operations in Syria, where Moscow backed Bashar al-Assad in a complex conflict involving pro-democracy groups and various militias allied with extremist factions.
The Gerasimov doctrine
In 2013, Gerasimov published an article that is commonly associated with the term hybrid warfare. The concept describes a strategy that combines conventional military power with nonmilitary tools such as information operations, cyber activity, economic pressure, and political influence to achieve strategic aims. The idea suggested that warfare had shifted toward a new border between peace and conflict, with modern methods blurring the line between war and political influence. These ideas have shaped Western interpretations of Moscow’s approach to conflicts in the postwar era and have influenced discussions about how modern militaries operate beyond traditional battlefield engagements. Some observers argue that the phrase Gerasimov doctrine became a staple in media debates rather than a formal Russian military doctrine, a point raised by scholars who caution against overreliance on a single label to describe evolving tactics.
During the years of the Russian campaign in Ukraine, speculation about Gerasimov’s position and future leadership faded at times. Financial and logistical support for Russia’s armed forces remained substantial, and leadership in Moscow repeatedly emphasized that there would be no constraints on funding for the military. Even as talk of new mobilization emerged in late 2022, officials in Moscow denied that any new general mobilization had been ordered. The dynamic battlefield and political landscape continued to shape perceptions of senior leadership, with Gerasimov playing a central role as the conflict persisted and Kyiv solidified its defensive positions.