A minor geomagnetic disturbance was forecast to begin February 10 and 11, according to statements by Sergey Bogachev, a Doctor of Physics and Mathematics who serves as a professor at the Institute of Space Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences. The forecast links the disturbance to a coronal hole on the Sun, a region where the Sun’s magnetic field is open and allows faster solar wind to escape.
Coronal holes generate fast solar wind streams that interact with Earth’s magnetosphere, producing geomagnetic activity even when the Sun is quiet. Observations indicated these wind streams were moving toward Earth and could arrive on the predicted dates. While coronal holes can trigger storms, they seldom reach the intensity of storms following large eruptions known as coronal mass ejections. As a result, the forecast called for noticeable activity but not an extreme event.
On the eve of the event, astrophysical forecasts projected a weak storm around February 10 lasting about six hours from 06:00 to 12:00 Moscow time. The forecast emphasized that there would be no large-scale magnetic explosions, and the overall intensity would stay modest. If the storm occurred, it would have marked the first geomagnetic disturbance of February 2025. For Canada and the United States, the pattern would likely produce auroras and minor perturbations to satellites and navigation systems, depending on local conditions.
From February 10 to 16, experts expected a week-long influence from a powerful coronal hole driving stronger solar wind toward Earth. During this period the magnetosphere could experience elevated activity, and auroras might be visible at lower latitudes than usual under favorable conditions. The disturbances are generally classified as minor to moderate, with little risk to power grids but potential disturbances to sensitive electronics used in aviation and space infrastructure. Residents of North America should monitor space weather alerts and be prepared for brief communications variances or compass shifts at high latitudes.
Historically, scientists note that magnetic storms of this size rarely disrupt medical equipment. Medical devices are designed with shielding and redundancy, and routine clinical equipment generally remains unaffected by standard geomagnetic fluctuations. Nevertheless, hospitals often review backup power and critical systems during periods of elevated space weather to ensure uninterrupted care. The broader goal remains to improve forecasting models that connect solar activity with Earth’s responses, giving the public and essential services clearer guidance for future events. The February 2025 episode serves as a reminder that even weaker solar activity can produce auroras and small variances in satellite or radio communications, especially in high latitudes.