The National Institute of Statistics (INE) released a GDP revision covering 2020 through 2022, showing real GDP growth of 5.8% in 2022, edging out the earlier forecast of 5.5%. This figure excludes the impact of inflation. In nominal terms, growth reached 6.4%, surpassing the preliminary January estimate by nearly one full percentage point.
The INE now reports a 1.5% higher GDP volume for 2022 than its previous estimate
Revisions also nudged the 2020 and 2021 figures upward. With the updated series published on Monday, the contraction in 2020 is shown at 11.2% versus 11.3% in the prior series. Real growth in 2021 rose to 6.4%, up from 5.5%, while 2022’s real growth stood at 5.8%, ahead of the January expectation by three tenths.
Overall, updating the national accounts for 2020, 2021 and 2022 yields an annual GDP at current prices of 1,346,277 million euros in 2022, about 1.5% higher than the initial INE estimate. The revised data point to a recovery to pre pandemic levels in 2022, rather than in early 2023 as the provisional figures had suggested. In fact, GDP at the end of 2022 was roughly 8% higher than in 2019, which stood at 1,245,513 million euros.
Lower debt burden
The larger GDP volume enables a 1.6 percentage point reduction in the debt ratio, bringing it to 111.6% of GDP in 2022
With nominal GDP higher, the relative weight of public debt declines. The Ministry of Economy notes that an increase in nominal GDP by more than 20,000 million euros allows the debt-to-GDP ratio to drop by an additional 1.6 percentage points, reaching 111.6% of GDP by the end of 2022. This shift also helps align the fiscal path with the targets in the stability program, with the goal of lowering the ratio below 110% by 2023.
The ministry also highlights the improved quality of growth, noting that wage shares rose by more than a percentage point, a change that benefits households across the country.
More consumption, less investment, more exports
INE’s 2022 projections indicate a marginal contribution from domestic demand, revised to 2.9% from 3.1% previously, while the contribution from external demand increased to 2.4% from 2.9%. These revisions reflect ongoing patterns in the economy as it navigates post-pandemic dynamics.
Regular reviews of the National Accounts are performed across the European Union, with the latest numbers incorporated into the official estimates. The current revision also factors in preliminary forecasts from the Household Budget Survey, agricultural accounts, and updated foreign trade data from the external accounts. Public administrations and nonprofit institutions serving households are included in the assessment, as explained by INE in the accompanying release.