Freight movement drives the vast majority of global trade, accounting for about nine-tenths of all goods transported by sea. Escalating export costs have become a pressing concern for shippers and economies alike. The Valencia Container Freight Index (VCFI), a metric developed by the Valencia Port Authority to track the evolution of sea-based export rates for loaded containers, signals that export costs are rising. In May, the index shows a 2.09% month-over-month increase and a cumulative gain of 375.13% since the series began in 2018, illustrating that export prices are nearly four times higher than four years ago. This trend places sustained pressure on exporters and the pricing structure of global supply chains.
Several factors contribute to the climb in freight prices. Robust demand for port traffic, higher marine fuel costs, and congestion at certain American and Asian ports continue to influence rates. The sector faces tension among a few carriers that control most of the capacity. The five leading lines—MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, Cosco, and Hapag-Lloyd—operate through three large alliances that move roughly 80% of world traffic. As a result, freight prices have surged, with carriers citing elevated fuel prices as a primary justification. Since 2020, fuel costs have roughly tripled, amplifying operating expenses for transport providers and, in turn, freight charges for exporters.
Experts warn that logistical disruptions could intensify after the summer, driven by renewed health concerns and rising energy prices. Observers also note the impact of higher interest rates, which tend to dampen investment and demand, potentially reducing the volume of ships needed to meet demand. In this environment, the cost of moving goods may stay elevated until tighter financial conditions curb activity and restore balance to capacity. Joan Tristany of Amec, an international association of companies, offers a pragmatic view: the combination of supply constraints and higher financing costs could slow investment and reduce demand, easing pressure on shipping in time.
Streamline the service
Barcelona’s port authorities acknowledge a round-the-clock effort to speed the movement of containers. Their ongoing priority is to shorten dwell times for full export containers with shipments scheduled within seven days, aiming to accelerate entry and exit to reduce bottlenecks and bolster throughput across the terminal.
Recent weeks have underscored how policy actions shape freight dynamics. In the United States, authorities moved to address port congestion by enforcing rules intended to prevent carriers with ships in U.S. ports from denying service to U.S. exporters without justification and by setting clear standards for rate applications. In remarks aligned with broader concerns about affordability, President Joe Biden criticized the elevated rates and perceived unfair practices of major carriers, linking them to broader inflationary pressures. He highlighted examples of substantial price increases observed on routes that include shipments to Asia and noted that some farmers and sectors of the economy bear a disproportionate burden due to these dynamics.
In response, shippers and freight forwarders have coalesced around concerns about the market structure. The major alliances have intensified coordination on principal routes. The 2M Alliance, comprising MSC and Maersk, operates a sizable fleet of roughly 1,400 vessels to serve global lanes. The Ocean Alliance includes CMA CGM, Cosco, and Evergreen, deploying hundreds of ships to maintain frequent service along key corridors. The Alliance grouping of Hapag-Lloyd, ONE, Yang Ming, and HMM represents another critical pillar of capacity. There is widespread concern that this period of elevated pricing could herald a new era in trade, with a larger share of profits staying within the shipping sector. Observers warn that firms controlling the main fleets may also grow influence over terminal handling and intermodal services, potentially tightening the supply chain under a consolidated model.