Climate scientist Alexei Kokorin lays out a stark forecast for the end of the 21st century: in a worst case scenario, as many as three billion people could be compelled to move away from their homes due to the mounting pressures of climate change. That figure represents roughly 30 percent of the global population, a scale that would redefine migration, humanitarian needs, and regional stability across multiple continents. In a more optimistic, best case scenario, the number of climate migrants would still be substantial, perhaps around one-tenth of humanity, underscoring that even under favorable conditions, displacement remains a looming reality. This summary comes from a report attributed to DEA News.
Kokorin stresses that if no concerted action is taken and conditions deteriorate toward the worst-case projection, the global tally of climate migrants could reach three billion by century’s end. His argument centers on the idea that rising temperatures, shifting precipitation patterns, and increasing extreme weather will disrupt livelihoods, agriculture, and housing for vast swaths of people. This scenario would place immense strain on migration corridors, urban infrastructure, and international aid systems, demanding proactive planning, resilient governance, and shared responsibility among nations.
From his perspective, the only viable path to avert such a disruptive outcome is a rapid transition to carbon neutrality. He contends that countries must aggressively reduce greenhouse gas emissions, expand clean energy, and modernize industries so that atmospheric concentrations stabilize and climate-related risks are managed more effectively. Even with positive development toward these goals, some communities will likely face water scarcity, degraded ecosystems, or other resource constraints that force relocation. Population movement, in this view, would stem not only from rising heat but also from failing water security and deteriorating living conditions in vulnerable regions.
Kokorin also notes that the emergence of climate migrants is no longer a distant hypothetical. He points to early signs in various regions, including Russia, where communities have already begun to adapt to shifting climate realities. In these cases, people are adjusting by migrating within national borders to regions with more favorable climates, better access to resources, or stronger economic opportunities. This trend illustrates how climate pressures intersect with housing, employment, and social networks, shaping who moves, when, and where.
Experts who study heat exposure emphasize that extreme temperatures pose direct health risks, especially for older adults and residents of communities accustomed to cooler climates. In particular, temperatures exceeding 40°C create dangerous conditions for the elderly, raising concerns about heat-related illnesses, dehydration, and compromised long-term well-being. Regions that historically experienced milder summers, including parts of the Krasnodar Territory, may see growing health challenges as heat waves become more frequent and intense. Public health systems must adapt with cooling centers, urban design that reduces heat retention, and targeted support for vulnerable populations, all of which influence the feasibility of staying put versus relocating.
In the policy arena, discussions have included measures to regulate lending and economic incentives that could influence migration patterns. Debates in legislative bodies have touched on restricting certain types of financial support that might inadvertently empower cross-border movements or strain social services. The broader context emphasizes the need for comprehensive, forward-looking strategies that balance climate resilience, economic stability, and the protection of vulnerable communities. At the heart of the conversation lies a common challenge: how to foster sustainable development while preparing for inevitable shifts in where people live due to a warming climate. This requires coordinated actions across local, national, and international levels, guided by sound science, transparent governance, and a commitment to human dignity and safety for all populations.