Salida en avión
Cuba is witnessing the largest exodus in its history. A recent study puts the number of Cubans who left the country between 2022 and 2023 at about two million, roughly 18% of the population. The current total of residents on the island remains under nine million. That demographic gap is growing and the migration wave far surpasses all earlier diasporas. In the 1960s about 300,000 Cubans left, in the 1980s around 125,000, and in the 1990s about 35,000, driven by political and economic pressures. demographic analysis, 2024.
The socio economic crisis Cuba faces today is worse than during the 1990s after the Berlin Wall fell, known as the Special Period. Shortages of food, medicines, hygiene products, and fuel combine with high inflation, low wages, and persistent blackouts. In the last month and a half two hurricanes and a quake have hit the island. economic review, 2023.
The current migration surge began in 2021. The pandemic accelerated the economy’s decline and deepened suffering, triggering protests the largest seen on the island since the Castro regime took power. The crackdown quieted the streets, but discontent and strain remain. political analysis, 2022.
Flight Exit
Today the main exit route is by air to Nicaragua, the only country in the Americas that for three years has not required a visa for Cubans. Once in Nicaraguan territory, most migrants begin a long journey through Honduras, Guatemala, and Mexico with the aim of reaching the United States border. The route spans about 2,700 kilometers, filled with hazards, typically taking around 16 days and costing up to 14,000 euros per person, paid to human traffickers. migration analysis, 2024.
Some analysts say the mass migration helps the regime shed the most troublesome elements and ease internal tensions, while boosting remittances from abroad, a key source of state income. More migrants also place pressure at the United States frontier; Managua uses this as leverage against Washington, with the government in Nicaragua facing sanctions. studies, 2023.
Eight in ten migrants are aged 15 to 59, and about 60% are women. “Cuba is exporting youth. The best are leaving,” comments a professor who asks to remain anonymous. “Many are professionals, doctors, or teachers who cannot live on the wages offered.” Most salaries range between 19 and 38 euros a month, while pensions do not reach 18 euros, and prices keep rising. market report, 2023.
Policrisis
The parents travel while children are left with grandparents. Cuba holds the highest aging index in Latin America. Mortality rises as birth rates fall. Expanding the family is not advisable while shortages persist. Economist and demographer Juan Carlos Albizu-Campos, who led the migration study, speaks openly of a humanitarian crisis in a setting of policrisis. interview, 2023.
The tourism sector, once the regime’s pride and essential for state coffers, remains depressed since the lockdown. The economy contracted by more than 11 percent during that period. Government efforts to revive growth through broad economic reforms have fallen short. In February the economy minister was dismissed. In the same month the regime sought help from the United Nations World Food Programme to maintain a milk subsidy for children under seven. Last year the economy contracted by 1.9 percent. bulletin, 2024.
Poor prospects from Havana’s external partners persist. Venezuela reduced oil shipments, while Russia, engaged in the Ukraine conflict, cannot cover Cuba’s energy needs, as evidenced by a massive blackout that lasted more than 72 hours. And although China is working on solar panels, it is a long term project. security update, 2023.
The embargo argument
The regime attributes the hardship to the enduring embargo from the United States and to ongoing sanctions that limit investments, financial transactions, and access to bank credit. “The blockade remains the main obstacle to Cuba’s development and the primary cause of migration,” says the Cuban president Miguel Díaz-Canel. statements, 2022.
The regime has shown resilience, but the current demographic imbalance does not bode well. A country that loses its youth is a country without a future.