It is time to redefine globalization. Incentives should be created to steer international capital flows toward the best opportunities, not defined merely by immediate profitability but by social and environmental criteria. This view echoed the statements of a Brazilian economy minister during the opening of a G20 finance ministers and central bank governors meeting in Sao Paulo. The gathering, which runs through the following day, outlines the roadmap ahead of the heads of state and government summit slated for November in Rio de Janeiro.
Speaking remotely due to illness, the economy minister warned that the global economic picture remains difficult and that there are no clear winners under current conditions. He noted that the legacy of the last wave of globalization contributed to widening income and wealth disparities across several nations. He pointed to an unsustainable situation in which the wealthiest 1 percent control a large share of financial assets while emitting a similar amount of carbon as the two thirds of humanity with the lowest incomes. In response, Brazil has taken on the G20 presidency with an inclusive mandate. He stressed the chance to advance a set of concerns such as poverty reduction, sustainable development finance, reform of global governance, fair taxation, international cooperation, and the persistent debt problems faced by many countries.
The minister underscored that economic integration should not be mistaken for market liberalization, labor law loosening, or financial and capital deregulation. He criticized the rise of tax havens that offer sophisticated forms of avoidance for the ultra-wealthy. In this vein, the French finance minister argued in favor of speeding up the creation of a global minimum tax on the rich to curb avoidance practices. He stated a firm commitment to accelerating this process. Advocacy group Oxfam Brasil suggested that a 5 percent tax on the wealthiest G20 individuals could fund efforts to eradicate world hunger and help lower- and middle-income nations adapt to climate change. The organization’s executive director asked whether leaders would insist on democracies that tax the super-rich.
Inflation and growth
Before the formal opening, the United States Treasury Secretary reiterated a message of resilience, noting that the global economy is showing stronger and more durable growth than anticipated. She highlighted a 3.1 percent global GDP uptick that surpassed projections and said the pace may slow in 2024 but recession is not expected. She also pointed out that inflation is easing and is projected to continue falling in most economies this year.
The International Monetary Fund released its Sao Paulo briefing, stating that the cyclical position of G20 nations has shown more strength than earlier feared, and inflationary pressures have not triggered a global recession. With a firmer recovery anchored in durable fundamentals, risks to the outlook appear more balanced. The IMF suggested global growth could surpass earlier estimates if disinflation proceeds faster than projected. Argentina remained the sole G20 member not benefiting from the broader growth trend. The IMF projected a roughly 2.8 percent decline in Argentina’s GDP for the year.
Ukraine, Russia assets, and broader geopolitics
Though the Sao Paulo meeting centers on concrete economic issues, geopolitics inevitably intersect the discussions, including the war in Ukraine and the Gaza conflict. The Ukrainian finance minister reported via online channels that geopolitical questions remain on the table. As host, Brazil proposed a final consensus document that minimizes references to these high-profile topics.
Two years after the invasion of Ukraine exposed fractures within the G20, discussions on frozen Russian assets continue. The U.S. told reporters that confiscating assets would require a shift in American law, while the European Union was urged to explore options to unlock investments to support Ukraine’s resilience and reconstruction. Russia’s finance minister warned that any move to seize reserves would undercut the global financial order and warned that those most hurt would be the same actors who push for such seizures. In a later interview, he argued that Western attempts to freeze Russian foreign assets abroad could backfire and require a response from Moscow.