Europe finds itself unsettled as a potential second Donald Trump presidency gains momentum. After the attack last Saturday, polls show Trump widening his lead over his Democratic rival, Joe Biden, who remains the favorite to win the White House for the next four years in many European Union countries.
“Trump’s return is more plausible now than it was six months ago,” says Javier López, a socialist member of the European Parliament who was recently named vice president of the new Parliament. “The European Union and NATO are weighing that scenario and will need to take steps toward greater strategic self‑reliance,” he adds. López argues that a Trump comeback would pose a higher risk for Europe than during his first term, noting the judiciary tilted in his favor and casting a lasting impact on the region’s balance of power.
A second Trump administration would raise a raft of questions for the EU, ranging from the future of Washington’s role in NATO and ongoing military aid to Ukraine, to the possibility of new tariffs that could disrupt business ties between the two continents, and to the ideological boost and legitimacy that Europe’s far-right parties might gain if Trump were back in the presidency of the world’s wealthiest and most influential country.
Support for Ukraine
“Without US support, continuing to arm Ukraine will be very difficult,” openly admitted Europe’s top diplomat, Josep Borrell, a few days ago. Europe’s immediate priority remains its external security, especially to halt the Russian advance. “So far, the official doctrine in the EU is to do whatever is necessary, for as long as it takes, to back Ukraine,” said the Spanish politician, who will step down before the US elections.
The European Parliament is aware of the challenge. “Trump has chosen as running mate someone who wants to leave Ukraine and Europe. Building a European Defence Union has never been more urgent,” said French liberal MEP Nathalie Loiseau.
Extremist Bridges
In a two‑party system like the United States, which faction holds power matters. Trump’s first campaign presented him as populist rather than a radical, but the selection of Vance signals a drift toward the European far right. In that context, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán’s visit to Trump for a purported “peace mission” for Ukraine created an unusual transatlantic link that Brussels critics say skirts institutional channels.
“[Trump] is convinced that the burden sharing between the US and the EU will shift significantly, to the detriment of the EU’s support for Ukraine,” Orbán wrote in a letter to the EU Council, a document EL PERIÓDICO has seen. The letter suggests Trump framed Orbán as a potential peace broker between Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky.
The Atlantic Alliance
“If we survived Putin’s reelection in Russia, we will weather the outcome of the US elections, no matter who wins,” says Antonio López-Istúriz, a Spanish politician who notes that the United States remains committed to NATO. “Trump’s approach has forced Europe to rethink its security posture,” he adds. Trump will encounter a very different Alliance from the one he left, with Sweden and Finland now members and 23 of 32 allies investing more than 2% of their GDP in defense, meeting the 2014 target for 2024.
“European allies are increasing defense spending, deployments, and forces,” diplomatic sources say, describing steps that move in the direction Trump urged, though not always in a way that satisfies a volatile leader. Yet higher defense spending could come at the cost of other budgets, warns Niclas Poitiers of the Bruegel think tank: “There is an economic and social impact to increased military spending.”
Economic Risks
The economic fallout for Europe has several angles. The Trump slogan of “Make America Great Again” centers on prioritizing the domestic market over international commerce. A clear example is the tariff measures Trump imposed on foreign steel and aluminum. “He claimed it was about national security, but it really protected the domestic market,” Poitiers explains.
Trump signaled a pivot away from free trade. Biden did not reverse that shift in four years in office, so experts fear that another regression before recovery could leave Europe in an even weaker position. The potential for renewed protectionism and shifting economic priorities remains a central concern for policymakers who must balance resilience with openness in a highly interconnected global economy.