The European Union has extended its safeguard measures on steel imports until June 30, 2026, shielding the European steel industry from certain low-cost imports from outside the bloc under favorable conditions. The second and final extension, which took effect on July 1, provides relief for European mills but does not erase the heavy pressure from inflows of foreign steel products.
The study service of Unesid, the Spanish steel industry association, notes in a report that the EU remains, by a wide margin, the world’s largest steel importer. Since these measures took effect in 2018 under World Trade Organization rules, imports have not ceased during the first six years of application. It warns that there are now two non-extendable years of additional time for European steel producers and downstream processing to confront the decarbonization challenge. 2026 is also the year many European funds expire.
Using data from Eurostat and Eurofer, the European steel federation, it is evident that foreign steel product penetration has fluctuated since the safeguard measures began in 2018. After two consecutive years of decline, and influenced by the economic cycle and weaker demand in 2023, imports reached 28 million tonnes, seven million fewer than the peak year of 2018, yet still higher than some pre-2018 years. As for the market share of imports, there was a three-point drop from 2021’s peak (2023 closed at 22%), but foreign product penetration remains above pre-2018 levels. According to Eurofer data released on July 25, the first quarter of 2024 saw non-EU participation in the EU market rise to an historically high 27%.
Unesid analyst Alejandro Arnao Solera recalls that the conditions that led to the measures remain in place and have worsened since the pandemic, citing the latest OECD report. He also notes that the United States has not removed the 25% steel tariff implemented under the Trump administration. The former president has signaled a tougher tariff stance if he wins the upcoming elections, a prospect that would add pressure on European producers and global trade flows.
All this occurs as Eurofer, the European steel association, stated on July 25 that the main indicators of the European steel market point to a steeper decline than expected. Weak demand, driven by persistent high energy costs, inflation, economic uncertainty, and geopolitical tensions, is aggravated by a manufacturing crisis affecting major steel-consuming sectors. The apparent consumption of steel is deteriorating further, heightening concerns about the sector’s outlook.
In a context where the fall in iron and steel prices remains a source of unease, market watchers are paying close attention to price dynamics and policy responses across the Atlantic and beyond. The combination of global supply conditions and European market fragility suggests that the road ahead will require continued resilience and strategic adjustment by European steelmakers and policymakers alike.
China’s impact looms large as its steel prices slide and exports surge following a retreat in domestic demand. The downturn in Chinese construction and a slowdown across several manufacturing sectors have driven a global slide in metal prices, particularly for iron and steel. China’s output is expected to reach about 100 million tonnes to offset weaker domestic demand, the largest volume since 2016. ArcelorMittal chief executive Aditya Mittal described current market conditions as unsustainable, noting that China’s overproduction relative to demand creates thin steel margins and aggressive exports. He warned that prices in Europe and the United States are pressured below marginal cost. Since then, China’s steel sector has faced what is described as a harsh winter, with executive leadership acknowledging a longer, tougher period ahead that has accelerated price declines. This development has contributed to further price volatility and concerns about global steel supply and pricing dynamics, impacting buyers and producers across regions.