We do not wish to see Russia attack Ukraine again, but the reality is clear: no European country currently feels fully prepared for an invasion of the scale Ukraine has faced. It’s not about claiming superiority; it’s about decades of readiness aimed at resisting aggression from Moscow. The Munich Security Conference underscored this shift, with European leaders acknowledging that deterrence requires stronger defenses and a more capable industrial base for armaments. The European Commission has signaled a plan to massively boost weapons production and to establish a defense-support agency for Ukraine, a framework that is set to be unveiled in the near term and to streamline sustained support across the continent.
“Let us stop lamenting the prospect of a Trump victory and stop counting on others to defend us. We must invest more in our own defense, increasing both spending and production of military equipment”, stated the acting Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, who is a leading candidate to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as NATO’s secretary general. Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, echoed this stance, insisting that Europe must strengthen its arms industry. She participated in the conference’s discussions alongside Rutte and Norway’s prime minister, who all stressed the need to build robust European defense capabilities.
Tie-ins among the participants repeatedly returned to two core themes: raising armaments output and reinforcing Europe’s defensive capacity. The Norwegian prime minister, as a NATO member state that is not part of the European Union, highlighted a mixed mood within the bloc, where some member countries push for decisive steps while others hesitate to commit. The alliance’s secretary general confirmed progress toward a broader defense posture as more member states meet the goal of spending at least 2 percent of their GDP on defense, with Germany now among those meeting the target after years of critique from Washington.
On the second day, German chancellor Olaf Scholz urged European partners to match American contributions to Kiev’s military needs. He noted Washington’s roughly 20 billion dollars in support and Germany’s planned 7 billion for the current year, with another tranche of similar size planned for the following year. Scholz emphasized the bilateral arrangements signed with Zelenski and the French president as a model for sustained backing to Ukraine. The aim, he argued, is a path forward that supports Ukraine’s future possible integration into the alliance, even as the war with Russia continues.
Discussions throughout Munich cemented a shared commitment to a substantial increase in European arms production as a cornerstone of deterrence and defense. Whether among social democrats or conservatives, the call was consistent: Europe must mobilize its industrial base to deter aggression and to support Ukraine more effectively, ensuring that democratic states near the region enjoy credible protection from coercive moves by Moscow.
Within the conference’s meetings, the presence of leaders from the Baltic region and Poland underscored a front-line reality: defending borders in eastern Europe demands tangible, timely support. The Baltic prime ministers pressed for unity in the face of threats that have persisted since the dissolution of the Soviet Union, a reminder that the risk to European security remains real. The death of a prominent critic, Navalny, and the Kremlin’s actions against his associates sharpened the sense that Western democracies must uphold accountability and push back against aggression while preserving a clear, united stance.
In this atmosphere, the Estonian prime minister stood out for her resolve. She argued that the Baltic states and their neighbors deserve no less credibility than any other ally in the alliance. Her leadership—rarely highlighted in the past—was seen as emblematic of the broader push to fortify front-line defenses and to acknowledge the particular vulnerabilities of small but strategically positioned states. The conversation at Munich thus connected leadership, accountability on the international stage, and a concrete plan to expand defense production as essential elements of long-term European security.
The overarching message was unmistakable: Europe is charting a course toward greater self-reliance in defense. With collective resolve and a concerted industrial effort, the continent aims to deter, deter, and then assist Ukraine in rebuilding and integrating into a secure and reliable security framework. The emphasis on credible commitments, sustained funding, and a strengthened defense industry reflects a fundamental recalibration in how European nations approach deterrence, alliance, and the defense of shared values against coercive pressure from adversaries.