The Spanish presidency of the Council of the European Union begins this Saturday. It is one of the so-called closing presidencies. Many projects started in the previous months need to be completed as the five year legislative term of the European Parliament ends next year and elections are scheduled for June. The piece reviews the upcoming challenges for the 27 member states and what this period has delivered so far.
Question: Is there a new European order that the European Union will have to adapt to in the coming years
Reply: There is a new European order both inside and outside the Union. The changes brought about by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have already prompted an adaptation. Security and defense have evolved, the concept of strategic autonomy has shifted, and systems have been reorganized to respond to disruptions in global supply chains. The question then becomes how the Union can be more resilient to external shifts that affect internal policy. There is also a new European order that will emerge from the June elections next year. This legislature is notable for a shifting balance among the two major political families, the Socialists and the European People’s Party, which no longer form a simple majority together. Since then, parliament has demonstrated variable coalitions and changing geometries, and the outcome of the June vote could push the trajectory even further.
Question: Is there strong support from the far right in the European Parliament
Answer: While polls are not conclusive, electoral results show a clear rise of radical right parties across member states. They have gained strength and now participate in coalition governments, as seen in Scandinavian countries recently. Spain faces elections this autumn, and in Poland the Law and Justice party remains influential in parliament. Italy is also a focus, given the impact of Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni on conservative and reformist groups that gained seats in this legislature.
Question: What issue has left a lasting mark on the EU over the years
Answer: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has reshaped nearly every prior item on the agenda. The idea of geopolitical Europe, framed by the commission president, aims to give the Union a stronger global role. With the return of war to European soil, the concept gained new significance.
Question: And beyond geopolitics
Answer: Europe is pursuing a dual objective that centers on preparing for green and digital transitions. These three priorities—geopolitical Europe, green transition, and digital governance—were forefront in the 2019 agenda. The pandemic soon followed, bringing disruptions to supply chains and accelerating digitization. Vaccine coordination and joint procurement marked a step forward, while Russia’s invasion deepened the sense of security. A broad consensus now exists on a Defense Europe that did not exist before. What remains uncertain is how the decline in Russia’s hydrocarbon dependence will influence the green transition.
Question: Is there a defensive level unit in sight
Answer: It appears to be a leap forward that balances urgency with uncertainty. There has been progress in Defense Europe, culminating in an agreement that had not been achieved beforehand. Yet the alliance remains tightly linked with the United States, given the leadership role in military aid to Ukraine.
What lies ahead for the EU in the coming months
The future path for the European Union hinges on its relationship with China. The economic significance is clear, but Washington is pressing Brussels to take a stronger line against the Asian power. The EU seeks its own balance point in this bipolar dynamic. At the same time, momentum in digital and technological governance continues. The Digital Services Act has created a governance framework for major tech platforms, including enforcement tools with significant fines. A forthcoming AI law aims to establish an ethical approach. There is a paradox in that the EU leads in regulation but not as consistently in innovation.
Question: Could governance within the union change, particularly about unanimity rules
Answer: The presidency in Spain is expected to explore changes to decision making so some issues can move forward with qualified majority rather than unanimity. Areas such as sanctions or foreign policy could be affected. The dialogue will continue to shape the balance between consensus and timely action.