food waste
The European Union faces a stark challenge in cutting methane emissions by 30% by 2030, a target tied closely to agricultural practices and livestock numbers. A new report released this week analyzes what would have to change if the current trajectory continues, particularly focusing on cattle headcounts and farming methodologies across the 27 member states.
The study, prepared by CE Delft for the Changing Markets Foundation, uses the EU reference scenario from 2020 as a baseline. Under a scenario where no policy shifts occur and production patterns remain steady, EU methane emissions would fall only about 13.4% by 2030. This would leave a significant gap between current pathways and the tougher climate goals many Europeans expect to meet, highlighting the need for additional policy actions and shifts in public behavior.
Policy makers and researchers alike point to diet as a critical lever. The report emphasizes that larger reductions can be achieved by encouraging Europeans to adopt healthier eating patterns with less meat and dairy. In practical terms, if 10% of consumers switch toward healthier diets and reduce meat and dairy intake, emissions could drop substantially, especially when combined with policies that address food waste and energy production and other linked sectors.
The analysis estimates that reductions up to 34% could be realized if half of Europeans embrace lower meat and dairy consumption and additional measures are implemented. These measures include efforts to curb food loss and waste, improve waste separation and reuse, and modernize energy and food-supply chains. The study also notes that addressing manure management remains a crucial factor in achieving deeper cuts.
When these strategies are combined, the report projects a potential 38% to 47% decrease in emissions, underscoring that a multifaceted approach is essential. It also suggests that bringing consumption in line with healthier eating norms would require faster adoption of dietary guidelines across the population and a revision of livestock production patterns to align with environmental targets.
One key takeaway from the findings is the need to halve the average European intake of pork and beef while reducing milk consumption by about 25%. This dietary shift is presented as an integral part of a broader transition toward sustainable eating patterns that protect health and the environment.
On the topic of waste, the report underscores that eliminating waste and reducing food loss can yield meaningful emissions reductions. It highlights opportunities to separate and reuse about a third of organic waste, with expectations of a substantial impact by 2030. In this light, the management of organic byproducts and the efficiency of waste-to-energy systems are identified as important components of the EU’s methane strategy.
Speaking about the livestock sector, Nusa Urbancic from Changing Markets describes it as the “Achilles heel of Europe’s methane strategy,” noting that emissions from EU livestock farms can rival the output of a large number of coal-fired power plants. This framing emphasizes the scale of the challenge and the potential gains from targeted reforms in farming practices and consumption patterns across the bloc.
Critics of current policy note that strategies to promote healthier diets with lower meat and dairy intake are not sufficiently reflected in the EU’s plans. They argue that policy portfolios should actively encourage shifts toward plant-rich diets, supported by accessible, affordable options that appeal to a broad audience. The concern is that without explicit policy support for healthier, more sustainable choices, emissions reductions will remain incremental rather than transformative.
Greenpeace Spain’s agriculture campaign lead, Luís Ferreirim, points to the sector’s outsized share in methane emissions, with livestock accounting for a dominant portion of the emissions profile. Activists contend that reforms in feed practices, herd management, and slaughterhouse efficiency must accompany dietary shifts to realize the full climate benefits.
Monique Goyens, the managing director of the European Consumer Organization, argues that EU funding currently still underwrites production of red and processed meats. She warns that this misalignment hampers public health goals and undermines mitigation efforts. The emphasis is on redirecting resources toward healthier, plant-forward options that are accessible, affordable, and appealing for everyday shoppers across the United States and Canada as well as Europe, reinforcing a global shift toward sustainable eating patterns.[citation: Changing Markets Foundation]