Weeks, perhaps a month, maybe even two—that was the sober prediction by analyst Ruslan Leviev on Russian television this Sunday, discussing how long it might take Russian forces to push Ukrainian occupiers out of the Kursk region in the southwest. Earlier this week, Kyiv’s army penetrated Russian territory and has since held several positions near the border. This marks Ukraine’s most consequential incursion since the war began, drawing intense attention from observers and policymakers alike.
Even as the task of ejecting the occupiers could take longer than hoped, Russia managed to slow the enemy advance by the sixth day of Kyiv’s incursion. Military bloggers in Russia reported that Kyiv had pushed roughly 37 kilometers inside Kursk province. They also published assessments of Ukraine’s short-term ambitions, noting that Ukrainian forces are trying to reinforce the positions they already control in order to defend them and to press further into new territory. At present, this remains the most successful attack on Russian soil and, for the first time since World War II, an invading force controls portions of territory that is internationally recognized as Russian.
The Russian Defense Ministry, for its part, said on Sunday that Ukrainian forces had suffered as many as 1,350 casualties since the start of the land incursion into Kursk. Military officials also reported fresh attempts by Ukrainian troops to advance within the Kursk offensive, which were repelled by Russian forces, including assaults in neighboring regions such as Belgorod.
Opening the Front
Publicly, Kyiv has not offered an explicit stance on the incursion. The only remarks from the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky praised the troops for actions that pushed the war into enemy territory, a move that broadens the front to roughly 1,500 kilometers and complicates Moscow’s military logistics. Kyiv also warned that Western aid, which has been promised but delayed, could slow the Russian push as the Kremlin capitalizes on what Russia says is a shortage of weapons and manpower. To complicate Moscow’s advance in Ukrainian provinces, Ukrainian commanders have repeatedly struck military and energy infrastructure targets far behind the front lines using drones and missiles, at times thousands of kilometers from the frontline.
One of Moscow’s closest allies, Belarus, announced on Sunday that it had moved its tanks toward the Ukrainian border. President Alexander Lukashenko criticized Ukraine on Saturday after a Ukrainian drone reportedly entered Belarusian airspace. Despite tight ties with Moscow and speculation about Minsk’s possible entry into the conflict, Belarus has avoided direct engagement in the fighting since February 2022, though its support for Russian troops has been evident: troops from Belarus participated in the early attempts to seize Kyiv when the conflict began.