Russia has seen its European hydrocarbon customers dwindle, and in tight moments even friends are weighed with caution. For Moscow, Ankara stands out as a crucial partner. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish president, shares a history of dialogue with Vladimir Putin that mirrors a tolerance for autocratic governance, occasional crackdown on opposition, and a significant role for religion in public life. In the current Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Erdogan plays a balancing act that serves both sides. Russia has viewed Turkey as a potential hub for its energy exports, aiming to turn Ankara into a high-volume transit node for oil and gas to European markets. The Turkish route has been described by Moscow as a dependable pathway for European supply, with downstream implications for industries in southern and eastern European nations such as Bulgaria, Greece, Serbia and Hungary. Turkey remains one of the few European states that has not joined sanctions against Russia, and it also serves as a major exit route for Russian citizens departing their country.
India has long treated Russia as a distant neighbor in terms of geography, yet the two nations have enjoyed a robust relationship since India’s independence, a dynamic that deepened during the Cold War era. Today, New Delhi is a leading buyer of Russian crude, with Indian ports handling a substantial share of Urals oil exports. Purchases from India dipped in February but recovered through 2022, especially after November, partially compensating for earlier reductions in European demand. In this scenario, Russia has maintained a steady role as a major energy supplier to India.
China also figures prominently as a growing partner for Russia, particularly in the natural gas sphere. Through pipelines known as the Siberian Energy Route, the two countries have strengthened energy ties and Chinese demand for liquefied natural gas has risen sharply. While some observers note that parts of this hydrocarbon flow may be redirected to Europe, Moscow continues to export significantly more to China than before, and bilateral trade in gas and other energy commodities has expanded compared with the previous year.
Where does Europe buy from?
Brussels and the 27 EU member states have had to rethink their energy sourcing in light of shifts in global supply. Central Europe presents a mixed picture, with Hungary under Viktor Orbán continuing to receive energy through Russian pipelines. Hungary remains one of the few EU members showing sustained sympathy toward Moscow, and Moscow has responded with reassurance via new contracts that secure hydrocarbon supplies for Budapest, exemplified by deals signed in the current year.
Azerbaijan has emerged as a notable partner for Europe, a South Caucasus nation led by Ilham Aliyev, known for large energy reserves. The country ranks poorly on certain democratic indicators and press freedom indexes, yet it remains a key energy supplier to the region. Baku has been involved in regional tensions, including the situation around Nagorno-Karabakh, with environmental and political dimensions affecting resource use. Despite those complexities, European leadership has continued to engage with Aliyev on energy cooperation, underscoring the importance of reliable partners in the energy transition.
Azerbaijan is also noted for significant renewable energy potential, and there is public discourse about advancing a new level of cooperation in this field. There is a broad pledge to reduce methane emissions across gas supply chains as part of a broader environmental agenda, signaling a diversification of energy partnerships that aims to balance reliability with sustainability.
Another nation that has entered the spotlight as a potential alternative supplier to Europe is Qatar. The country has hosted major global events and faced scrutiny over governance and human rights records. In 2023, European discussions looked at diversifying away from long-standing suppliers, including attempts to broaden German energy partnerships, while Moscow and other partners explored deeper industrial ties to support European industry during periods of budgetary and supply pressures. The region’s energy landscape continues to attract international attention because of questions about governance, human rights, and the broader implications for energy security and regional stability.
In this evolving energy map, the emphasis remains on securing stable, varied, and transparent supply chains. The conversations among European, Asian, and Middle Eastern players reflect a deliberate shift toward resilience, diversification, and climate-conscious policies. The aim is to ensure consistent energy access while addressing environmental and political considerations that shape global energy markets.
Notes accompanying the broader discourse highlight ongoing efforts to document and understand these shifts. Analysts emphasize the importance of reliable partnerships and transparent trade practices as Europe adapts to new patterns of energy dependency. Scholarly and policy discussions continue to explore how geopolitical dynamics influence energy security, with particular attention to transitions toward cleaner energy sources and reduced methane emissions across the gas supply chain. These themes recur across studies and official statements as Europe navigates a complex, interdependent energy future.