Sudden losses of surface area in sea ice around Antarctica can ripple through ecosystems, touching species that rely on frozen habitats for breeding, moulting, or feeding. One species highly affected is the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), which uses vast ice expanses across its entire life cycle.
Emperor penguin colonies depend on stable, solid sea ice. They use the Marginal Ice Zone as a breeding ground, a moulting site, and a feeding habitat. The birds arrive at breeding grounds from late March to April and lay eggs between May and June, with the eggs hatching after about 65 days and the chicks becoming flight-capable between December and January.
All of this activity occurs on the continental ice where the lifecycle unfolds. Stability from April through January is crucial for a smooth breeding season and early development of offspring.
Research published by Earth and Environment warns that emperor penguin colonies in a region of Antarctica where sea ice is projected to disappear entirely by 2022 are experiencing unprecedented reproductive failure. The finding aligns with global trends suggesting that more than 90 percent of emperor penguin colonies could be nearly extinct by the end of the century.
dramatic situation
British Antarctic Survey researchers found that in four of five emperor penguin colonies in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea no chicks survived. They analyzed satellite images showing the loss of sea ice on breeding grounds long before chicks grow waterproof feathers.
By early December 2022, Antarctic sea ice extent reached the lowest levels on record, matching the record set in 2021. The most extreme losses occurred in the central and eastern Bellingshausen Sea, west of the Antarctic Peninsula, where a complete loss was observed in November 2022.
Such reproductive failure has never before been seen in emperor penguins. Scientists note that emperor penguins are highly vulnerable in warming climates, and current evidence indicates that extreme sea ice loss events will become more frequent and widespread.
These conditions place the species at serious risk. The animals face dwindling habitats and disrupted life cycles as climate patterns shift, underscoring the urgency of understanding how changing sea ice dynamics affect breeding success and survival rates.
Since 2016, Antarctica has recorded several of the lowest sea ice extents seen since satellite records began about 45 years ago; the most challenging seasons occurred in 2021/22 and 2022/23.
Between 2018 and 2022, about 30 percent of the 62 known emperor penguin colonies in Antarctica faced partial or complete loss of sea ice. While directly attributing specific extreme seasons to climate change remains intricate, long-term models project a continued overall decline in sea ice extent.
impossible transfer
Emperor penguins have previously responded to sea ice loss by moving to more stable sites in subsequent years. Yet this tactic may fail if sea ice declines across the entire region, leaving fewer viable breeding locations.
In the modern era, these populations have not faced hunting, habitat destruction, overfishing, or other human impacts at the scale seen in some other species. Climate change stands out as the primary factor likely to shape their long-term risk, making ongoing monitoring and climate research essential for conservation planning.
If warming trends persist, projections suggest that more than 90 percent of emperor penguin colonies could be nearly extinct by century’s end.
The five colonies studied—Rothschild Island, Verdi Bay, Smyley Island, Bryan Peninsula and Pfrogner Point—were identified through satellite imagery over the past 14 years. Each year, these colonies tended to return to the same breeding sites, with only one prior episode of reproductive failure recorded at Bryan Peninsula in 2010.
Scientists now regularly use satellite imagery to monitor colonies, as the brown guano patches stand out against the white ice and snow. The analysis drew on data from the European Commission’s Copernicus Sentinel-2 mission, which has provided ongoing oversight of the Antarctic region since 2018.
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