There are no political miracles in El Salvador, a nation nicknamed the ‘Little Thumb of Latin America.’ It appears salvation must come from Latin America itself. Nayib Bukele governs with a firm hand and broad loyalty from supporters. His administration’s security approach is widely recognized, and he hopes to secure a sweeping mandate from more than six million eligible voters this Sunday.
Bukele has a taste for records. On February 4, he could become the first president in recent Salvadoran history to extend his term beyond the standard limit. He would stay in power alongside Vice President Félix Ulloa, despite constitutional provisions against immediate re-election. The Supreme Electoral Court resolved the matter in the president’s favor, with the majority of practitioners of law divided, but ultimately supporting him with a signature vote.
Polls predict a landslide. The Jesuit-run José Simeón Cañas University of Central America (UCA) shows a voting intention of 81.9% for the ruling party candidate Nuevas Ideas. A survey by Francisco Gavidia University (UFG) indicates 70.9% of Salvadorans prefer the candidate. Manuel ‘Chino’ Flores of the leftist Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (FMLN) trails far behind, a distant contender in a highly polar race.
Assembly Renewal
The campaign has framed opposition as obstructive to the government, while opposition messages emphasize safety and economic well-being. Flores warned that the government aims to detain dissenting voices and to march forward without stigma or fear. Other contenders include the right-leaning Nationalist Republican Alliance (Arena), a force that played a crucial role after the 2007 peace settlement. The civil war of the last decades is receding into history, even as some observers cast doubt on the pace of change. Forecasts suggest Bukele’s party could secure a comfortable majority in the 60-member Legislative Assembly, enabling governance with limited parliamentary friction. Analysts anticipate a strong showing for the Bukele-linked slate, potentially securing around 55 seats.
The campaign has been marked by a mix of relentless messaging and allegations of distortion. Amid growing inequality, the economy is projected to grow and unemployment remains a concern for a segment of the population. Critics point to government tactics that rely on selective distribution of goods and services to garner support, drawing attention to basic-basket provisions and donations from various international partners. The public conversation about these programs continues to be heated and contested by multiple voices.
The debate policy field includes a broader critique of how security gains are weighed against civil liberties, a point raised by observers and watchdogs who question the balance between order and rights. Reports from investigative outlets suggest that resources and logistics for public assistance have been utilized in ways that warrant scrutiny. These discussions have fed into a wider discourse on governance, transparency, and the impact of state actions on everyday life.
A Story of Violence
This marks the seventh national election since a peace agreement ended a long civil conflict. Tens of thousands were killed and thousands disappeared during years of unrest. The post-conflict era reshaped global perceptions of the region, even as the country faced renewed violence and economic hardship. Much of the population depends on remittances from relatives abroad. The latest estimates indicate remittance inflows will reach billions in the near term, underscoring the persistent vulnerability of households to crime and instability.
Bukele’s support rests in part on his ability to control urban spaces and reduce homicide rates, a feat accomplished at notable social and economic costs. Critics argue that aggressive security measures have also led to broad enforcement actions that disproportionately affect poorer communities. This aspect of homeland security remains a contentious and less-discussed part of the national conversation.
Security policy is not the centerpiece of the electoral debate, in part because the president has avoided open confrontation on the topic. In January, the legislature extended a suspension of constitutional guarantees for another period amid rising violence attributed to organized crime, a move that has drawn mixed reactions and prompted questions about civil liberties and long-term governance.
Negotiations with a Mexican Cartel
Just days before the elections, investigations reported by El Faro suggested potential negotiations involving a high-stakes operation with the Jalisco Nueva Generación cartel to locate and recapture a gang leader known as ‘Crook.’ The sources claimed involvement by a range of officials and outlined alleged parallel channels and arrangements. Investigators cited audio and electronic communications as part of the documentation, hinting at complex connections between criminal networks and certain security actors.
According to the reported materials, one elite police unit may have engaged in negotiations and offered compensation in exchange for actionable intelligence and the repatriation of a captured target. The figure known as ‘Crook’ is a historic leader within MS-13, a gang long associated with transnational criminal activity. The exchange raised questions about law enforcement methods and accountability in high-stakes criminal cases. Analysts note that such allegations could influence public trust and election dynamics.
The president framed the disclosures as part of broader claims about external influence in the election cycle, emphasizing control over both urban spaces and digital information. The discussion underscores the ongoing tension between security objectives and the ethics of governance, and it points to the larger context of political risk in the nation’s electoral landscape.