Understanding El Niño and La Niña Impacts in 2023–2024
In recent years the Pacific Ocean has shown alternating cycles that influence weather worldwide. The NOAA notes that the equatorial Pacific is returning to a neutral state between March and May 2023 after extended periods of abnormal warmth and cooling. Meteorologists point out that the waters were cooler than their long-term average, suggesting a temporary pause in the climactic oscillation (NOAA).
Following this neutral phase, forecasts indicate a return to warming later in the year, which could intensify the pattern across the globe (NOAA). The Pacific’s fluctuations typically rise to about 3 degrees Celsius above average for stretches of two to seven years, a cycle that corresponds to El Niño when warming dominates the surface. Conversely, cooling phases give rise to La Niña conditions, shaping different regional climates over time (NOAA).
Experts explain that a shift in the cycle is possible and could noticeably alter global climate behavior. El Niño tends to move across various regions, with noticeable effects in parts of Europe and other areas, and is often discussed in the context of an overall warming trend linked to climate change. The year 2023 stands out as a period when global temperatures could surpass the notable 1.5-degree target associated with long-term warming (NOAA).
The warming of the equatorial Pacific, the planet’s largest ocean, combined with the approach of summer, adds global energy that can lift average temperatures. Specialists anticipate higher heat levels in 2023, suggesting that surpassing the 1.5-degree threshold is plausible (NOAA).
Past years show that even during La Niña there are spikes in heat; 2016 remains the warmest year on record, driven by a powerful El Niño. For 2023, numerical forecasts already project a warmer-than-2022 pattern, with models indicating elevated temperatures across the year (NOAA).
Some researchers warn that the extra energy released into the atmosphere and oceans can intensify meteorological events worldwide, making hot spells, heavy rainfall, and droughts more likely in various regions (NOAA).
Drought, heat waves, and changing precipitation patterns are among the widespread effects discussed. In particular, heat waves may intensify due to longer duration and broader reach, impacting ecosystems and human systems alike.
Beyond 2023, experts including James Hansen of Columbia University have suggested the El Niño signal could strengthen in 2024, potentially reaching higher positive values and contributing to ongoing or additional warmth in many places (NOAA).
El Niño is expected to persist from 2023 into 2024, with noticeable impacts beginning in the summer and continuing through the following year. Regions as diverse as Europe and parts of the Americas may observe shifts in temperature, rainfall, and storm patterns as the climate system adapts to this oscillation (NOAA).
Predictable effects for 2023 include a global average warming around 0.2 degrees Celsius, cooler European winters in the northern parts of the continent, intensified heat waves that can drive drought and bushfires in Australia, and altered rainfall patterns across the Americas. Coastal areas of Peru and Ecuador may experience higher flood risk, while the Amazon and northeastern Brazil could face droughts; agricultural yields may tighten in several regions, and forested areas could absorb less carbon dioxide, with possible rises in disease transmission via insects (NOAA).