In war, money and math alone do not decide outcomes, but numbers matter. Russia, for example, used a large strike last Monday across Ukraine, reportedly delivering 83 missiles and 17 drones to hit major cities simultaneously.
The costs can be telling. The missiles likely add up to several hundred million euros, while the 17 unmanned aerial vehicles cost hundreds of thousands. The spotlight is on the Shahed-136, Iranian built drones. The word Shahed means martyr in Persian, and the term fits how these drones function they are designed to crash into targets and explode their payloads on impact.
These aircraft are not top of the line in technology or effectiveness. Their engines are noisy, and their speed tops out around 180 kilometers per hour. The payload is light, and the mission radius is limited before impact. Like other drones such as the Turkish Bayraktar, Shahed drones are relatively low tech and simple to move and deploy, which makes them more accessible for battlefield use in Ukraine.
Yet the appeal of Shahed lies in price. Each unit is estimated around 20 000 euros. The drones offer a significant advantage by saturating air defenses. A large volley can overwhelm a defender, and even when paired with a small number of more expensive missiles, the overall impact can be substantial. Analysts describe this combination as altering the economics of an attack rather than replacing missiles outright, offering a new balance in modern warfare, according to William Pulido, a conflict analyst.
Ukrainian intelligence recently suggested Russia had purchased about 2 400 drone units, with the potential for higher totals. Even if they do not decisively tilt the war, these drones pose a persistent challenge for Ukraine by complicating defense and response efforts.
As the analysis goes, the strategy hinges on numbers and timing. The drones can fly in large groups and create confusion for air defenses. If even a small number breach the layers of protection, they can pressure logistics, supply lines, and infrastructure, notes Samuel Bendett, a researcher at the American CNA think tank. The consequence is a shift toward defense oriented around dispersed assets and resilient supply chains, a reality that changes how contemporary forces plan and operate.
A paradigm shift
When Turkey began using Bayraktar drones effectively in 2020, many observers claimed a new era of cheaper aerial capability was dawning. Even in Syria, home made drones with basic charges were able to strike bases held by rival forces, signaling that drone warfare would become a defining feature of future conflicts.
Bayraktar sales have spread widely, with deployments to numerous countries. Shahed drones are following a similar path, smaller and less capable in isolation, yet far more affordable and accessible. The implications are clear a broad ecosystem of cheaper drones could proliferate while still challenging traditional air defenses and fueling regional conflicts.
Analysts point to a crucial factor the ability to source components that dodge sanctions. The affordability and access to essential electronics suggest a potential shift in how states finance and sustain drone programs. This dynamic alters strategic calculations for major powers and smaller states alike, reshaping the competition among nations, according to Pulido.
The broader takeaway is that the balance of power in the air is evolving. In the past, a few major players could field large scale bomber operations. Now, a wider array of countries with modest budgets can deploy drone fleets capable of impacting infrastructure and overall war dynamics. The trend points to a future where unmanned systems occupy a central role in conflict planning and execution, with costs and logistics becoming major levers in any confrontation, as noted by Pulido.
Overall, the role of unmanned vehicles is likely to grow in future conflicts. The economics of war are shifting, and prices will continue to influence choices about what kinds of systems nations invest in. This is not confined to the current Ukraine conflict; it is a pattern that could shape global warfare for years to come, according to analysts and researchers studying modern armed forces.