Dust in Central Asia has risen by about seven percent over the past three decades, a change tied to the drying of the Aral Sea. German researchers from the Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research and the Free University of Berlin led the investigation, with findings published in the scientific journal Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. The study confirms a clear link between lake shrinkage and increasing airborne dust in the region.
The analysis shows that from 1984 to 2014 dust emissions from the desert surrounding the former water body nearly doubled, climbing from roughly 14 million tons to about 27 million tons. This sharp rise mirrors the broader environmental transformation caused by water loss and land exposure in the Aral basin, stresses that have persisted for decades.
Researchers note that the measured dust quantity is likely an undercount, as an estimated two thirds of total dust volume remains aloft, not captured by surface measurements. This suggests the true regional burden is substantially higher than surface estimates indicate and may extend its influence far beyond the immediate area of the Aral Sea.
Historically, the Aral Sea was one of the world’s largest lakes, occupying about 68,000 square kilometers until the early 1960s. Its waters were sustained by the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers flowing from the Pamir and Tien Shan mountains. Heavy irrigation for agriculture diverted large portions of these rivers, reducing the river inflow and gradually shrinking the lake. As water dwindled, vast areas dried out and became desert, giving rise to the Aralkum Desert, a landscape of sand and salt where once there was open water.
Aralkum stands as a major artificial-dust source on the planet. Spanning roughly 60,000 square kilometers, it is smaller than the natural Karakum desert to the south and the Kizilkum to the southeast, yet its dust carries unique hazards. The soil carries fertilizer residues and pesticide remnants from intensified farming, elevating concerns about health and agriculture in surrounding regions.
To evaluate the impact of dust from Aralkum, the research team employed the COSMO-MUSCAT atmospheric dust model, a tool that estimates how many particles linger in the air and their distribution. This modeling helps scientists understand how dust travels, where it concentrates, and how long it remains suspended in the atmosphere.
Dust particles influence climate in two striking ways. By shading the Earth’s surface during daytime, they produce a cooling effect. At night, they trap some heat by reflecting long-wave radiation back toward the surface, which can create a warming effect. The net result depends on where dust sits in the atmosphere, the time of day, the season, the color and reflectivity of surfaces, and the mineral makeup of the dust itself.
Beyond radiation, the study found indications that dust can reshape broader weather patterns. Aralkum dust appears to raise ground-level air pressure in the Aral region by up to 0.76 Pascals on a monthly scale, a change small on a single day but meaningful over time. The combined influence of this pressure shift can contribute to stronger winter high-pressure systems in Siberia and a weaker thermal low in Central Asia during summer, altering regional rainfall and temperature distributions.
The researchers emphasize that the escalation of desertification driven by lake drying is not confined to a local issue. It poses wider climate implications for large parts of Central Asia and adjacent regions. The new data from the former Aral Sea area enhance the ability to assess how desert dust interacts with climate systems, offering a clearer picture of regional resilience and risks in a changing environment.
Earlier scientists noted that dust storms can trigger allergy and respiratory responses in some individuals, underscoring the public health relevance of understanding dust dynamics in this part of the world. The latest work contributes to a more comprehensive view of how human activity, land-use changes, and atmospheric processes intertwine to shape environmental and health outcomes across Central Asia.