The 28th annual United Nations climate conference, COP28, is nearing its December gathering in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, from November 30 to December 12. What features will define this COP, and what can observers expect from its proceedings?
Global governments will reconvene to review how climate policies are being put into practice and to consider new steps to strengthen their effectiveness. A long-standing challenge persists: many agreements from prior summits have not been fully implemented, including the promised financial assistance to the poorest nations. This gap remains one of the central tensions facing COP28.
COP28 has faced scrutiny from the outset due to selecting a major oil producer as host. The chair of this summit is Sultan Al Jaber, chief executive of the United Arab Emirates national oil company.
The oil company led by Sheikh Al Jaber plans to expand production in the coming years
Oil, along with gas and coal, remains a major driver of the climate change currently confronting the world. This has led to questions about how someone who runs a large oil company can lead a conference aimed at curbing fossil fuels.
In reality the company led by Al Jaber intends to grow its production capacity in the near term, a stance that many observers view as incongruent with ambitious decarbonization goals.
One climate group, 350.org, remarked that appointing the head of a fossil fuel company to oversee a conference on climate action resembles a paradoxical choice.
Al Jaber counters that running an oil company provides a practical vantage point for reform inside the industry. He also serves as chair of Masdar, a renewable energy company, which supports expanding clean technologies such as wind and solar power.
The challenge of meeting the Paris Agreement goals
Beyond ongoing debates, COP28 aims to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels. This target was endorsed by nearly 200 countries in the Paris Agreement of 2015 and has guided global climate policy ever since.
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, maintaining the 1.5 degree pathway is essential to avoiding the most severe climate impacts.
The International Energy Agency calls the Paris target very difficult to achieve given that current warming already reaches about 1.2 degrees
Recent assessments note that despite progress, warming is on track to reach or exceed 1.5 degrees within this decade if current trends continue. The world has already warmed roughly 1.2 degrees since preindustrial times, and emissions trajectories remain a critical determinant of the outcome.
Scientists and official reports have warned that even with pledged cuts, warming could approach 2.5 degrees by the end of the century if policy and implementation falter. The UN suggests that the chances of staying within 1.5 degrees are shrinking as emissions reductions progress remain uneven globally.
Cutting emissions further and supporting poorer countries
In practice COP28 is focused on accelerating changes to climate policies to speed up emissions reductions and accelerate the deployment of clean energy. The overarching aim is to achieve meaningful reductions before 2030.
Achieving this will not be easy. Powerful oil interests are expected to press for greater flexibility in decarbonization targets, a stance seen by many as misaligned with the scale of the climate emergency.
At COP28 the push for more flexible decarbonization targets resurfaces
There is also debate about how gradually reductions should occur. Characters in the EU and other regions push for a clear phase out of fossil fuels, while others argue for a pragmatic transition. Some climate advocates warn that slow phase outs may leave residual production in place for too long.
Amid the policy discussions, a critical issue remains the long promised aid to poorer countries. Wealthier nations pledged substantial climate finance decades ago, yet the delivery and structure of funding remain unsettled. In 2009, developed countries pledged to mobilize about 100 billion dollars annually to support developing nations in reducing emissions and adapting to climate impacts. Last year COP27 established a fund for loss and damage to compensate the most vulnerable nations, but detailed mechanisms and disbursement plans remain under negotiation. The United States has historically resisted contributing to some climate mitigation funds.
As COP28 unfolds, observers await concrete agreements on aid delivery, transparency in climate finance, and the path forward for incorporating loss and damage provisions into actionable programs. The conference continues to test the balance between ambitious climate action and the political realities that shape how money, targets, and technology are shared on the global stage.
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Disclaimer notes and updates will be provided as the process continues to unfold.