The potential shrinking of land suited for coffee cultivation is a concern that could intensify in the years ahead. Researchers from the CSIRO, the Australian national science agency, have highlighted this risk and its implications for coffee supply chains across North America and beyond.
Experts note that since 1980, global coffee production has faced an increasing likelihood of shortages that could hit multiple regions at once. Coffee plants are highly sensitive to shifts in climate because their ideal growing conditions hinge on precise ranges of annual temperature and rainfall. In this context, the head of the relevant department emphasizes that modest changes in these weather patterns can ripple through both yields and quality, affecting farmers, exporters, and consumers alike.
To reach their conclusions, the research team built a statistical model drawing on several datasets. They mapped the historical distribution of areas suitable for coffee cultivation on a worldwide scale, then layered in year-by-year production data. Weather records from the same period were incorporated, creating a rich, multifactor view of how climate has interacted with coffee farming. In addition, scientists identified twelve climate hazard types based on existing literature, including the risk that daily maximum temperatures could exceed the tolerance limits of coffee plants.
Among the key findings is that, in step with global warming, the most frequent threat involves swings from unusually cold to unusually hot conditions. These extremes pose the greatest danger when they occur simultaneously across different regions, increasing the chance of widespread disruption. The study suggests that ongoing suboptimal growing conditions could trigger persistent, systemic shocks to coffee production rather than isolated harvest setbacks.
Experts warn that the coffee supply chain could be stressed in new ways as climate variability becomes more pronounced. In North America, where consumers and roasters rely on imported beans, fluctuations in price, availability, and quality may be felt seasonally and year to year. Farms in traditional coffee-growing belts may need to adjust practices, diversify crops, or explore shade management and water-use efficiency to sustain yields under changing climate regimes. Policy makers, industry groups, and researchers are encouraged to monitor shifts in suitable cultivation zones and to invest in resilient farming methods that can buffer against sudden climate shocks.
Overall, the research underscores the importance of proactive planning for coffee-producing regions, including North America’s supply networks. While adaptation strategies may help mitigate some risk, the long-term outlook remains contingent on broader climate trajectories and regional responses to warming trends. Stakeholders are urged to consider climate projections alongside agronomic innovations to maintain stable production and high-quality beans for consumers across Canada and the United States, even as weather patterns become less predictable. The study’s insights also highlight the value of international collaboration in sharing data, sharing best practices for resilience, and supporting farmers as they navigate a future of greater climate variability.
In this context, concerns about the health of coffee ecosystems extend beyond farm gates. Forests, biodiversity, and water resources linked to coffee landscapes could experience indirect effects from shifting climate conditions. The interconnected nature of agricultural systems means that ensuring the stability of coffee supplies will require coordinated efforts among scientists, industry leaders, policymakers, and local farming communities. As the world warms, the resilience of coffee production will increasingly depend on a combination of sound science, strategic investments, and adaptive farming practices that can withstand a broader range of climate scenarios.