Infections are rising again in China, surpassing a daily threshold that once seemed unlikely weeks ago when quarantines limited the spread of new, more contagious variants.
The most visible consequence of the country’s COVID policies has sparked widespread social media debate about recent events in Guangzhou. Residents returning home found doors left ajar in dozens of buildings. After testing positive, people were moved to hotels for quarantine and disinfection. Authorities conducted searches for close contacts and even asked residents to hand over keys, an approach that felt heavier and more chaotic than a few blunt actions.
Officials apologized for what was described as simple and heavy-handed conduct and promised compensation along with disciplinary steps. The incident, though isolated, surprised many and drew sharp criticism. Some observers noted that such displays of force sometimes surface in rural areas, contrasting with the more orderly processes long associated with Beijing. In the capital, early citizen complaints were enough to lift vaccination and testing requirements at public entrances.
Foci at two opposite points
The current pandemic situation in China seems to be moving toward a steady but stubborn uptick in cases. The numbers are high by Western standards, yet the government remains fixed on suppression. Attention centers on two contrasting hotspots: Lanzhou, the capital of Gansu in the northwest, where a rapid rise has challenged local authorities; and Beihai on the eastern coast, a popular tourist magnet where thousands have faced urgent quarantines. In Shanghai, even modest outbreaks trigger large-scale testing campaigns across multiple districts.
China remains the only major economy persisting with a zero-COVID policy that includes strict isolation, mass testing, and border controls. The economic toll is evident: growth in the second quarter slowed to 0.4 percent, the weakest showing in two years and casting doubt on the 5.5 percent annual target. A meaningful rebound in the second half of the year would require policy adjustments that balance public health with economic activity. President Xi Jinping has reiterated that safeguarding life and health remains a priority alongside GDP considerations.
If Western contrasts offer any lessons, China faces the risk of a heavy humanitarian toll if vaccination rates lag among the elderly and rural health networks falter. In many rural provinces, hospital capacity remains stretched, leaving little margin for error. Yet the political calculus remains: while some steps hint at easing, the state continues to emphasize political control over the public health narrative. Recently, restrictions for travelers arriving in China were trimmed from two or three weeks to one week, and relaxed expectations are likely to grow ahead of the Communist Party Congress later this year.
Independent media outlets have noted conversations signaling a possible shift in diplomacy. Reports suggested discussions involving the United States and leaders from Germany, France, Italy, and Spain planning a meeting in the capital by November. If realized, this would mark a notable pause in nearly three years without face-to-face Chinese diplomacy. Beijing has also indicated the possibility of hosting a major regional sporting event in 2023, a plan that would require careful calibration given current health metrics. In public health terms, China has emphasized balance: allowing more normal life while maintaining safeguards to prevent a relapse of severe cases, a stance presented as essential for the country’s broader reopening.
Across the country, the balance between vigilance and normalization remains delicate. The outlook will depend on hospital networks, vaccination coverage, and testing capacity, shaping not only health outcomes but also perceptions of governance and effectiveness in managing an ongoing health crisis. In this context, observers watch closely as authorities navigate the competing demands of public safety, economic stability, and political legitimacy, while the world weighs the implications of China’s approach for global travel, trade, and regional diplomacy.