Cava sales trend and market outlook for the final quarter
Sales of cava continue to rise, and the momentum shows no signs of slowing as the year closes. Industry observers expect the sparkling wine family to set another sales record in 2023. By September, the origin brand was estimated to have moved roughly 170 million bottles, a 2.3% increase compared with the same period a year earlier. About 70% of cava exports go abroad, a level driven primarily by international demand. Yet this export rate is significantly lower than the peak of the previous year, a shift that is being watched without alarm by market participants.
Company leaders project that a robust Christmas campaign could bring growth closer to 4% — the level recorded in 2022. If campaigns perform well, the decline in growth could be averted. Javier Pagés, president of the Denomination of Origin (DO), notes that even a price rise in line with inflation for the second consecutive year would not derail sales. There is confidence that consumer demand remains resilient, and while some fear a potential downturn, Pagés suggests the year could still end with record results. This optimism is rooted in the crop’s natural growth potential and continued consumer interest in cava as a festive option.
When examining the overall category, early-year data point to certain shifts. Higher-category cava varieties have faced a decline, with reserve cavas aged beyond 30 months showing a 1.8% drop and reserve aged cava with minimum 18 months down by around 18%. These shifts reflect evolving consumer preferences and stock dynamics as the market adjusts to regulatory changes.
Regulatory changes have altered definitions around what constitutes a reserve cava, prompting many DO member wineries to label their products within traditional categories. Pagés emphasizes that the focus is not on inflating or deflating bookings but on elevating the overall perception of cava. The regulator’s board chair notes that improving how cava is perceived may ultimately strengthen market position, even amid ongoing regulatory adjustments.
The broader economic and climate contexts add another layer to the outlook. Cost increases across the supply chain and at the origin, coupled with the possibility of crop reductions, could tighten inventories later in the year. The potential for tighter supply might encourage producers to manage stock more efficiently, appealing to consumers who are willing to pay a premium for quality and consistency. In short, the market is navigating a delicate balance between rising input costs, crop risk, and the strength of consumer demand.
national consumer trends
The national consumer is seen as the key player in shaping cava’s near-term trajectory. Through the first nine months of the year, Spain’s sales rose by about 7.6%, while international shipments remained nearly flat. Analysts suggest that the domestic market remains a driving force behind cava’s growth, supported by the broader economic and social context.
Pagés notes that, across Europe, the Iberian Peninsula stands out for its stability in a region where growth has generally slowed. GDP progress in neighboring economies ranges from flat to modest gains, and some economies experience setbacks. Yet within Spain, consumer spending in hospitality, accommodation, and tourism continues to lift cava consumption. The overall message is one of cautious optimism: even as economies temper, cava remains a popular choice for celebrations and everyday moments, supported by a resilient domestic market and a steady international demand that reinforces the product’s appeal.