Researchers from the University of Nottingham in collaboration with colleagues at Oxford have introduced a new tool named CanPredict, designed to identify individuals at the highest risk of developing lung cancer over the next decade. The work is documented in the journal Lancet Respiratory Medicine, signaling a meaningful advance in predictive medicine and cancer screening.
Lung cancer remains one of the most common cancers worldwide by incidence and the leading cause of cancer death. Yet, when detected early, survival rates improve markedly. This underscores the value of regular screening for people who carry the greatest risk, enabling timely interventions and closer clinical monitoring that can alter outcomes for patients and families alike.
The CanPredict model was built using data from more than 19 million UK patients, with researchers identifying a set of factors that statistically correlate with future cancer risk. These factors include smoking history, age, ethnicity, body mass index, and overall health status. By integrating these variables, the tool produces individualized risk assessments that can guide clinicians in determining who should be prioritized for further testing and surveillance.
In a large validation study, CanPredict was applied to 2.54 million individuals to evaluate its performance. The results showed that CanPredict achieved higher accuracy and sensitivity in estimating five-, six-, and ten-year lung cancer risk than existing screening tools, offering a potentially more reliable method to stratify risk and optimize screening pathways for people at greatest danger.