A new analysis from researchers at California’s University of Agriculture and Natural Resources highlights a looming challenge for fruit and nut farming as climate change accelerates. The study warns that warmer temperatures will drive a sharp rise in pest populations, threatening key crops such as peaches, almonds, and other nuts. The findings appear in the science journal Total Environmental Science (STTE) and underscore the need for growers to adapt their pest management strategies in the coming years.
Researchers identify three major pests as likely to surge with rising heat: the codling moth, the peach moth, and the eastern codling moth. Each of these species targets fresh fruit and nut orchards, undermining yields and increasing production costs. Warmer springs are expected to shift the timing of these pests, enabling them to emerge about 28 days earlier in the season. Moreover, the interval between successive generations is projected to shorten by roughly 19 days, accelerating population growth and complicating control efforts.
The study highlights the walnut industry as a particularly affected sector. The walnut weevil moth already poses a substantial threat across large tracts of California, covering more than 141 thousand hectares. At the same time, peach moths and eastern codling moths are identified as major threats to peaches. The researchers emphasize that farmers may need to monitor and manage almost every generation of these pests to safeguard fruit quality and maintain economic viability.
Co-author Jalendra Rijal notes that proactive pest control will be essential as climate conditions shift. The research aims to provide growers with practical guidance on the latest control methods and how to adjust practices to cope with evolving pest pressures. As weather patterns become less predictable, ongoing monitoring and adaptive management will be critical for protecting yields while controlling costs.
The study also underscores the importance of integrating beneficial insect management into broader IPM (integrated pest management) plans. By combining cultural practices, biological controls, and targeted chemical interventions, farmers can reduce damage while supporting pollinators and natural enemies. As the agricultural community seeks resilient strategies, researchers advocate for continued collaboration with extension services and industry partners to translate findings into action on the ground.
Farmers are encouraged to stay informed about advances in pest monitoring technologies, including pheromone traps, degree-day models, and real-time weather data. These tools can help anticipate pest events and time interventions more precisely. In addition, the research signals a need for investment in resistant crop varieties and orchard design that can withstand higher pest pressures without sacrificing yield.
The broader takeaway is clear: climate change is reshaping pest dynamics in California agriculture. By anticipating shifts in pest phenology and generation intervals, growers can implement smarter, more proactive management plans. Such efforts will be crucial to preserving crop value, protecting farm income, and ensuring a steady supply of peaches, almonds, and other tree crops for consumers and processors alike.
In light of these findings, agricultural communities are urged to continue sharing field observations, validating models with real-world data, and refining best practices. The evolving pest landscape calls for vigilance, adaptation, and collaboration across researchers, farmers, and policymakers to sustain California’s vital fruit and nut sectors.